Reducing Uncertainty in Technology Selection for Long Life Cycle Engineering Designs

The best capabilities are usually achieved by having the latest technologies in defense systems. However, including the new, usually immature, technologies in a system design does not always easily result in achieving the capabilities at the right level, at an affordable cost, and in a timely manner. Many programs have suffered from immature technologies as cost overruns, late or no deliveries, and poor performance levels. Another impact of technology selection appears as obsolescence after the deployment of systems, or even before the deployment of the system. As the technologies of a system become obsolete, the cost of maintaining the system increases. Defense systems, which have longer sustainment life cycles, are more vulnerable to obsolescence of technologies. While obsolete technologies increase the cost of maintaining the military systems, they also impact the level of the superiority of the capabilities. In the current literature, several approaches have been proposed by different authors to address either the immature technology risk or the technology obsolescence risk. This study will make an effort to develop an approach which addresses the issue of technology selection for long life cycle defense systems that consider both the feasibility risk of immature technologies and obsolescence risk of technologies