Exam Overconfidence and Exam Performance Over Time

Students can be overconfident on exams (Foster et al., 2016). This study assesses whether exam overconfidence changes over time. We also examine the relationship between overconfidence and exam performance. Undergraduates (n = 71; Mage = 20.8 years; 79% female; 77% White) forecasted exam grades before and after the first two exams in a course. Overconfidence was operationalized as any predicted score greater than the actual exam score (overprediction). Exams were worth 100 points each. Results suggest that exam overconfidence may decrease somewhat over time. In addition, overconfident students tend score lower on exams than students who underpredict their scores