Competition, Wealth, and Education: Explaining Uncontested House of Representatives Elections

Uncontested elections pose a major problem for American democracy, as uncontested elections deny voters any choice (or any meaningful choice) in selecting their representatives. Even for prestigious offices like The House of Representatives, uncontested elections are prevalent; between 1982 and 2018, over 7% of all House of Representatives elections were uncontested. Using data gathered from the Federal Election Commission, Census Bureau, Congressional Quarterly, and other sources, I created a data set of 8,265 House of Representatives elections to examine potential causes of uncontested House of Representatives elections. With three logistic regressions, I found significant evidence that electoral competition, education, and wealth can affect the likelihood of an uncontested House of Representatives election. Uncompetitive congressional districts, as well as congressional districts with a lower percent of residents with high school diplomas and a higher median household income, were more likely to have an uncontested House of Representatives election, all else being equal. These findings suggest that uncontested elections may be due to a lack of competition, but also due to limitations which prevent potential candidates from contesting. Future research on candidate emergence and uncontested elections may better clarify why people become candidates, as well as clarify how to give voters meaningful control over their representatives.Bachelor of Art