Bitcoin mining and electricity consumption

We propose a dynamic industry equilibrium model for Bitcoin electricity consumption in a general framework, including Bitcoin miners’ optimal entry and exit with technology innovation. By adopting average operating costs as an approximation to the true operating costs, we overcome the difficulty of strong path-dependency due to the interaction among entry, exit, and technology innovation. The model can capture both the upside and downside co-movements of miners’ computing power, electricity consumption, and mining revenue. Our model shows that the Bitcoin electricity consumption will not grow indefinitely, with the ratio of Bitcoin electricity consumption to the miners’ revenue fluctuating within a range.First author draf