Modelling uncertainty in global natural gas resources and markets

This thesis explores uncertainties in global gas resources and markets. Whilst global gas consumption growth has been strong in recent years, the need to shift the global energy system to net zero has raised significant questions about the role of gas in this transition. In addition to the global context of addressing climate change, gas markets have undergone significant shifts in recent years, driven by a multitude of factors including, but by no means limited to, rapid production growth from unconventional gas in the United States, rapidly increasing demand in China, and increased competition along the gas supply chain. This thesis finds that if global temperatures are to be kept towards-1.5oC, then gas consumption needs to peak now. Significant regional variations were found in this result, with European and North American demand declining from the present day, whilst key Asian markets (including China) see consumption growth to 2035 but then rapid decline. Therefore, several transition risks are identified in this work. This also has implications for price formation across different import markets, with a significant result from this thesis suggesting that prices in major Asian (e.g. China and Japan) markets converge, whilst European prices remain consistently lower. To generate novel insights in this thesis, two models were used, which have been soft linked to generate consistency of inputs and outputs. The existing TIMES Integrated Assessment Model at UCL (TIAM-UCL) provides long-term insights into the role of gas in the wider energy system, particularly under ambitious decarbonisation pathways. Additionally, a new global GAs Production, Trade and Annual Pricing model (GAPTAP), provides a novel representation of gas markets, with insights into regional price formation mechanisms, investment in new fields, the role of associated gas on price formation mechanisms, and variations in government revenues from gas production