Evidence for a global electric vehicle tipping point

This is the final version. Available from the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter via the link in this recordGSI scientific working paper series number 2022/01Electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce road transport emissions and have recently seen rapid innovation, decline in cost and a rise in popularity. Achieving a transition to EVs hinges upon their accessibility to current users of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV). Here we show with historical evidence that globally, an irreversible private passenger EV diffusion tipping point may have been crossed, where sales of ICEVs decline in leading markets, as preferences fo r and access to EVs rise, in a selfreinforcing manner. We analyse the structure and dynamics between 2016 and 2021 of four leading car markets comprehensively. The pandemic has drastically affected ICEV sales: many models are now planned to be discontinue d, while EVs see unaffected rapid growth and achieve cost parity within a few years. We suggest that coordinated policy incorporating EV mandates in the leading car markets could induce an EV transition in the rest of the world