Implications of Coastal Conditions and Sea‐Level Rise on Mangrove Vulnerability: A Bio‐Morphodynamic Modeling Study

This is the final version. Available on open access from the American Geophysical Union via the DOI in this recordData Availability Statement: The field data regarding mangrove seaward edge elevation relative to MWL is summarized from previous publications and is available as supplementary materials (Table S4 in Supporting Information S1).The field data regarding local SLR rates and vertical elevation dynamics is available as supplementary material (Table S5 in Supporting Information S1), summarized from the open-access publication by McKee et al. (2021). Delft3D is an open-source code available online (at https://oss.deltares.nl). The dynamic vegetation code with a representative model setting is available at https://github.com/xiedanghan/MangroveVulnerabilityModel.Mangrove forests are valuable coastal ecosystems that have been shown to persist on muddy intertidal flats through bio-morphodynamic feedbacks. However, the role of coastal conditions on mangrove behavior remains uncertain. This study conducts numerical experiments to systematically explore the effects of tidal range, small wind waves, sediment supply and coastal slope on mangrove development under sea-level rise (SLR). Our results show that mangroves in micro-tidal conditions are more vulnerable because of the gentler coastal equilibrium slope and the limited ability to capture sediment, which leads to substantial mangrove landward displacement even under slow SLR. Macro-tidal conditions with large sediment supply promote accretion along the profile and platform formation, reducing mangrove vulnerability for slow and medium SLR, but still cause rapid mangrove retreat under fast SLR. Small wind waves promote sediment accretion, and exert an extra bed shear stress that confines the mangrove forest to higher elevations with more favorable inundation regimes, offsetting SLR impacts. These processes also have important implications for the development of new landward habitats under SLR. In particular, our experiments show that landward habitat can be created even with limited sediment supply and thus without complete infilling of the available accommodation space. Nevertheless, new accommodation space may be filled over time with sediment originating from erosion of the lower coastal profile. Consistent with field data, model simulations indicate that sediment accretion within the forest can accelerate under SLR, but the timing and magnitude of accretion depend non-linearly on coastal conditions and distance from the mangrove seaward edge.China Scholarship CouncilDepartment of Physical Geography, Utrecht UniversityNWO WOTRO Joint Sustainable Development Goal Research ProgramEuropean Union Horizon 2020National Natural Science Foundation of Chin