Probabilistic Kolmogorov complexity with applications to average-case complexity

Understanding the relationship between the worst-case and average-case complexities of NP and of other subclasses of PH is a long-standing problem in complexity theory. Over the last few years, much progress has been achieved in this front through the investigation of meta-complexity: the complexity of problems that refer to the complexity of the input string x (e.g., given a string x, estimate its time-bounded Kolmogorov complexity). In particular, [Shuichi Hirahara, 2021] employed techniques from meta-complexity to show that if DistNP ⊆ AvgP then UP ⊆ DTIME[2^{O(n/log n)}]. While this and related results [Shuichi Hirahara and Mikito Nanashima, 2021; Lijie Chen et al., 2022] offer exciting progress after a long gap, they do not survive in the setting of randomized computations: roughly speaking, "randomness" is the opposite of "structure", and upper bounding the amount of structure (time-bounded Kolmogorov complexity) of different objects is crucial in recent applications of meta-complexity. This limitation is significant, since randomized computations are ubiquitous in algorithm design and give rise to a more robust theory of average-case complexity [Russell Impagliazzo and Leonid A. Levin, 1990]. In this work, we develop a probabilistic theory of meta-complexity, by incorporating randomness into the notion of complexity of a string x. This is achieved through a new probabilistic variant of time-bounded Kolmogorov complexity that we call pK^t complexity. Informally, pK^t(x) measures the complexity of x when shared randomness is available to all parties involved in a computation. By porting key results from meta-complexity to the probabilistic domain of pK^t complexity and its variants, we are able to establish new connections between worst-case and average-case complexity in the important setting of probabilistic computations: - If DistNP ⊆ AvgBPP, then UP ⊆ RTIME[2^O(n/log n)]. - If DistΣ^P_2 ⊆ AvgBPP, then AM ⊆ BPTIME[2^O(n/log n)]. - In the fine-grained setting [Lijie Chen et al., 2022], we get UTIME[2^O(√{nlog n})] ⊆ RTIME[2^O(√{nlog n})] and AMTIME[2^O(√{nlog n})] ⊆ BPTIME[2^O(√{nlog n})] from stronger average-case assumptions. - If DistPH ⊆ AvgBPP, then PH ⊆ BPTIME[2^O(n/log n)]. Specifically, for an