A longitudinal analysis exploring economic and migratory predictors of race and religious hate crime in London

Objective: This study aims to develop our understanding of the drivers of race and religious hate crime in Greater London and to ascertain whether the well-established ecological theories of hate crime derived and typically employed in the US are applicable in the UK, these being social disorganisation theory, defended neighbourhood theory and resource threat theories. Method: This study employs panel regression and draws on longitudinal data provided by the Metropolitan Police Service to capture the number of recorded race and religious hate crimes at borough level over four time-points, between the years 2011 and 2017. Migration, economic, and demographic indicators form this study’s independent variables and are drawn from a variety of government and municipality sources; the variables feature time-series data for each year of interest, at borough level. Findings: Fixed-effects estimations reveal the prevalence of race and religious hate crime in London is likely to intensify in boroughs with greater household incomes, higher proportions of ethnic minorities in employment, and a larger population of foreign-born and non-White-British residents. Where family households receiving benefits constitutes a larger proportion at borough level, hate crimes against ethnic and religious minorities are less likely. Discussion: There is little evidence to suggest that social disorganisation theory and defended neighbourhood theory form a comprehensive explanation to London’s hate crime problem. We find stronger evidence to suggest resource threat theories provides a more robust explanation. Conclusion: The perceived threat to economic resources posed by ethnic minorities and migrants provides the most robust explanation for London’s hate crime