Insights into Persistence Mechanisms of a Zoonotic Virus in Bat Colonies Using a Multispecies Metapopulation Model

International audienceRabies is a worldwide zoonosis resulting from Lyssavirus infection. In Europe, Eptesicus serotinus is the most frequentlyreported bat species infected with Lyssavirus, and thus considered to be the reservoir of European bat Lyssavirus type 1(EBLV-1). To date, the role of other bat species in EBLV-1 epidemiology and persistence remains unknown. Here, we built anEBLV-12transmission model based on local observations of a three-cave and four-bat species (Myotis capaccinii, Myotismyotis, Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) system in the Balearic Islands, for which a 1995–2011serological dataset indicated the continuous presence of EBLV-1. Eptesicus serotinus was never observed in the systemduring the 16-year follow-up and therefore was not included in the model. We used the model to explore virus persistencemechanisms and to assess the importance of each bat species in the transmission dynamics. We found that EBLV-1 couldnot be sustained if transmission between M. schreibersii and other bat species was eliminated, suggesting that this speciesserves as a regional reservoir. Global sensitivity analysis using Sobol’s method revealed that following the rate ofautumn2winter infectious contacts, M. schreibersii’s incubation- and immune-period durations, but not the infectiousperiod length, were the most relevant factors driving virus persistence