Psychological theories of depressive relapse and recurrence:A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies

Psychological factors hypothesized to account for relapse of major depressive disorder (MDD) roughly originate from five main theories: Cognitive, diathesis-stress, behavioural, psychodynamic, and personality-based. In a meta-analysis we investigated prospective, longitudinal evidence for these leading psychological theories and their factors in relation to depressive relapse. Included studies needed to establish history of MDD and prospective depressive relapse through a clinical interview, have a longitudinal and prospective design, and measure at least one theory-derived factor before relapse. We identified 66 eligible articles out of 43,586 records published up to November 2018. Pooled odds ratios (OR) indicated a significant relationship between the cognitive, behavioural, and personality-based theories and depressive relapse (cognitive: k = 17, OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.10-1.40; behavioural, k = 8, OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.05-1.25; personality: k = 12, OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.02-1.54), but not for the psychodynamic theories (k = 4, OR = 1.29, 95% CI = 0.83-1.99). Pooled hazard ratios of the theories were not significant. There were no articles identified for the diathesis-stress theories. To conclude, there is a restricted number of prospective studies, and some evidence that the cognitive, behavioural, and personality-based theories indeed partially account for depressive relapse.