THE NONSTATIONARITY OF GERMAN AGGREGATE OUTPUT

In this paper the stationarity of German per capita output for the period 1870-1989 is examined, using both a parametric and a non-parametric approach. The standard unit root tests and the scaled variogram suggest that German output is not stationary. Following the approach suggested by Perron (1989), we show that there is much more evidence for stationarity of German output if a one-time shock is allowed for. Unlike Perron, we use a method suggested by Christiano (1992) to determine the break date endogenously. Our results are in contrast with the findings of Wolters (1992).