Tanzanian manufacturing performance in comparative perspective

This paper presents a summary of new estimates of employment, nominal and real GDP in Tanzanian Manufacturing, 1961-1995. Time series of GDP and employment are placed in comparative perspective by linking them to benchmark level comparisons of GDP and employment for 1989. The first part of the paper (sections 2-4) deals with adjustments to nominal GDP, based on in depth analysis of the data of the 1989 industrial census, earlier census data and industrial surveys. Adjustments are made for undercoverage, omitted establishments, non-response and conceptual adjustments in the concept of value added. After adjustment, nominal manufacturing value added in establishments with 10 is substantially higher. The adjustments vary from 3% in 1978 to 127% in 1988. On average the upward adjustment is 52 per cent. New consistent time series of nominal GDP are presented both for aggregate 10+ manufacturing (1961-1995) and for six branches of manufacturing (1965-1995) The second part of the paper (section 5) focuses on the construction of a consistent long term index of industrial production, using weighted quantity relatives. The index is constructed for aggregate 10+ manufacturing and six branches. Corresponding indices of employment are derived, using the same adjustments for undercoverage, omitted establishments and non-response as in the case of GDP. The third section of the paper (section 6) presents a benchmark comparison of real value added relative to world manufacturing productivity leader, the USA. The benchmark uses average unit value ratio’s to convert value added for purposes of real comparisons. These unit value ratio’s are derived from the industrial census product listings in Tanzania and the USA, according to the industry of origin methodology of the international comparisons of output and productivity project (ICOP). Census listings contain quantity and value information, which are used to make product matches. In 1965 comparative labour productivity in aggregate manufacturing was around 9 per cent of the US level. It increased until 1973 to 11 per cent, followed by a long period of decline. By 1989 labour productivity stood at 3.7 of the US level