[[alternative]]The Impact of China-US Trade Negotiations on Taiwan's Stock Market

[[abstract]] 2018年美方特別針對中國知識產權侵害和技術轉讓要求調查是否存在「不公平貿易關係」，俗稱的「301條款」，以平衡日益惡化的中美貿易赤字。由於中美雙方堅守母國利益，使得貿易談判的氛圍愈趨緊張，由於二國皆為貿易大國，其效應將可能直接或間接波及其它的貿易夥伴。 台灣在經濟上十分仰賴國際貿易，故由來對區域經濟事件尤其敏感，另一方面在台、中、美之供應鏈上，台灣主要扮演提供中國中間商品及關鍵技術支援的角色，並在中國製成最終產品再銷往全球，其中又以美國為主要出口國，故基於台灣在中、美貿易之緊密關係，推測台灣將受此事件直接的衝擊。 台灣由於與中、美在貿易皆有密切往來，故此推測台灣將受此事件直接的衝擊。本文即利用事件研究法探討中、美貿易談判對於我國股市之影響，研究樣本包括可能受衝擊之公司，如南亞、台橡、正新、鴻海、台積電、大立光，共計6個樣本公司、產業類股指數及大盤加權指數，並以市場風險調整模型、市場指數調整模型及平均報酬調整模型建立預估報酬模型。實證結果顯示中美貿易談判對與中國公司具有上、下游關係之台灣公司的股價將產生影響。其中重要結論如下：(1)不可預期事件對類股指數及個股的衝擊尤其顯著；(2)事件對台股衝擊約在一週內反應；(3)事件日前，部分公司及類股指數價格已反應，顯示中美貿易談判事件具有資訊漏損現象。[[abstract]] In 2018, the US proposed the “Section 301” against the China's technology transfer requirement which is accused has been violated the US's intellectual property rights for the purpose of balancing the worsening China-US trade deficit. Furthermore, it is getting more and more tensed for the trade negotiations between China and the United States due to both of the countries adhere to the interests of their home countries. Since both countries are major trading nations, their effects may directly or indirectly affect other trading partners. Taiwan is usually sensitive to the regional events due to its economy deeply relies on international trade. Furthermore, Taiwan plays an important role in the supply chain between China and the United States for providing the intermediate goods and key technical support to China. Therefore, this study expects Taiwan will be directly affected by the event of China- US Trade Negotiations. This article uses the event research method to explore the impact of China- US trade negotiations on the Taiwan stock market. The research samples the companies which have the co-operation relationship with China, such as Nan Ya, TSRC, Cheng Shin, Foxconn, TSMC, and Largan Precision. Besides that, the industry stock index and the market-weighted index are sampled as well. The capital asset pricing model, market model and constant expected return model are employed to estimate the expected return of the sample companies. The empirical results show that China- US trade negotiations have significant impact on the stock price of Taiwanese companies which have the cooperation relationships with Chinese companies. The important findings are illustrated as follows: (1) the effect induced by the unpredictable events are particularly significant; (2) events affect is continuous about a week; (3) the significant effect will be observed before the event day, it implies the existence of the information leakage for the event of China- US trade negotiations