Welfare regime patterns in the social class-fertility relationship: second births in Austria, France, Norway, and the United Kingdom

This paper develops a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between social class and fertility. The framework borrows elements from social class analysis, institutional perspectives on the labor market and fertility, and welfare and gender regime theories. I hypothesize that individuals’ social class positions impinge on their economic security, employment–parenthood role compatibility, and gender relations, which are key variables in the explanation of fertility in contemporary postindustrial societies. Different combinations of these variables for each social class and country lead to class-specific fertility patterns. I use Austrian, French, Norwegian, and British samples from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, for the years 2004–2015, and discrete-time event–history analysis techniques to analyze second birth probabilities. A simultaneous equations approach is adopted to account for unobserved heterogeneity. The results document substantial differentials between social classes and distinct social class patterns for each country, consistently with the theoretical expectations. In Norway and France, overall high levels of second birth probabilities are found that follow a positive social ordering. In the United Kingdom and Austria, a U-shaped relationship between class and second birth probabilities prevails. Once unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for in the analyses, social class shows a positive effect on fertility in the four countries. The results show that social class is not only key to understanding intracountry differentials in fertility but is also useful for understanding the functioning of the welfare regime and its relationship to overall levels of fertility.This work was supported by the Spanish “State Research Agency-Agencia Estatal de Investigación” (AEI) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) of the European Union, with grant no. CSO2016-80484-R