Offensive Cyber Operations and Future Littoral Operating Concepts

Introduction of new ground-launch cruise missile options to hold adversary naval targets at risk in order to support conventional deterrence objectives through sea control and sea denial missions is the centerpiece of proposed reorganization of Marine Littoral forces, as part of new “Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations,” and “Littoral Operations in Contested Environments” concepts. Effective distributed sea control fires against pacing threat maritime formations requires defeat of integrated air defense systems. Offensive cyber operations capabilities may be considered as a means of altering the calculus of attrition in missile fires exchanges, but due to various sensitivities it has been difficult to date to discuss these options in unclassified literature. Simulated engagements in contemporary commercial off-the-shelf wargaming software are used to offer unique insights into the problem space. Findings from simulated engagements suggest high payoff options for integrated effects, as well as highlighting the importance of certain missile design characteristics, seeker operation modes, and battery operations. The results of these simulations once again validate longstanding principles of naval combat, and suggest that offensive cyber capabilities may provide useful advantage by exacerbating tactical fires instability. However, this analysis further highlights the access, exploitation, and payload tailoring challenges posed by complex heterogenous adversary networks - suggesting a problem space that rapidly moves from the question of cyber fires in fleet problems, to the questions of the saboteur’s dilemma