Application of the wind damage risk model for the assessment of tree mortality in the Sudety Mts. in 2015-2017 period

A dynamic process of mortality of Norway spruce stands in south−west Poland, mainly in the Sudety Mts. was observed in 2015. It was associated with an insufficient amount of precipitation in the growing season. This process was intensified by the outbreak of insects, especially bark beetles. The aim of the paper was to verify the hypothesis that the application of the stand damage risk model allows to identify stands, which may possibly be predisposed to mortality, after a long−lasting drought in the growing season. The studies concerned the forests of the Wrocław Regional Directorate of State Forests (tab. 1). Their area covers 245,000 ha, the timber volume amounts to 83 million m3 (338 m3/ha) and the volume increment to 2.3 million m3 (9.4 m3/year/ha). The fraction of spruce is the largest (50.3%), ranging from 7.1% (Pieńsk Forest District) to 84.8% (Lądek−Zdrój Forest District). The average age of stands is 74 years, ranging from 56 (Pieńsk Forest District) to 85 years (Jawor Forest District). The drought in 2015 caused an increase in the dynamics of spruce decline. The ratio of harvested to model deadwood volume at a level of up to 5% was assumed the ‘norm’ that characterizes the process of natural spruce mortality. Values higher than normal mean a more intense process of tree mortality caused by external factors (e.g. hurricane winds, floods, droughts). In 2014, the harvested deadwood was below the norm in 15 forest districts (fig. 1). In 2015, the highest ratio values (above 20%) were reported in the Wałbrzych and Szklarska Poręba forest districts (fig. 1). In 2016, the harvest of deadwood in each forest district exceeded the norm, and the highest values were found in the Jawor (102.3%), Bardo Śląskie (83.3%) and Świdnica (69.7%) forest districts. In 2017, the highest ratios of harvested to model deadwood volume were reported in the Bardo Śląskie (117.2%), Jawor (83.6%), Henryków (83.5%) and Świdnica (67.1%) forest districts. The model was found to identify also the stands that are most threatened by droughts. These are stands in the highest damage risk factor Wr class. The highest percentage of deadwood in this damage class was in Jawor (88.8%), Bardo Śląskie (81.9%), Miękinia (79.4%), Świdnica (76.7%), Henryków (73.8) and Złotoryja (73.6%) forest districts. It was also shown that the average value of the measure of threat to forests Ms was 35, qualifying them as highly threatened (fig. 3). Forests characterized by the highest level of threat Ms>40 was found in five forest districts, while in nine others the level of threat was high. The forests of the Sudety Mts. are threatened by the decline and the main direct causes of this process was the long−lasting drought in the growing season, causing damage to the stands earlier weakened by wind and other factors