Vulnerability analysis in critical infrastructures: A methodology

Vulnerability assessment is a crucial aspect for the development of methodologies to define the levels of protection in critical infrastructures. Throughout this research, we discussed the concept of vulnerability and methodologies and processes for its assessment in critical infrastructures due to a terrorist threat. The research focused on the development of an analysis model, exploring a multi-criteria decision method, in order to limit the risks to the maximum extent possible. Through a qualitative research methodology, in which we applied an analysis model based on the Threat and Infrastructure dimensions and their respective factors, we verified that the vulnerability of a critical infrastructure consists in the probability of the success of an attack, conducted by a threat - properly identified, characterised, analysed and categorised - against an infrastructure with certain characteristics, which value is defined by the user and aggressor’s point of view. The construction of an algorithmic model for vulnerability assessment, complemented by tools to support the calculations and records, allows, through a rational, scientific and algebraic process, a qualitative analysis of factors to be transformed into measurable and quantifiable values, whose algebraic operation integrates them into a final result that expresses, as a percentage, the degree of vulnerability of a critical infrastructure facing a terrorist threat