Spatial differentiation of non-marital births in Poland, 2002-2010

Since 1950s, the non-marital birth rate has been relatively high in the northern and western Poland, and relatively low in the south of the country. A remarkable increase in the percentage of non-marital births, observed after 1989 and especially in the recent decade did not change this spatial pattern. This article aims to quantify the spatial differentiation of the non-marital birth rate in recent years, between 2002 and 2010. It also attempts to verify three hypotheses, which try to explain the reasons behind the spatial pattern of non-marital childbearing from three different perspectives: the opportunity cost theory, the theory of anomie and historical trauma, and the theory of social influence. The analyses have been conducted on the NUTS-4 level (the Polish powiats) using the standard OLS regression models and the spatial autoregressive models: the spatial lag models and the spatial error models. The results of the multiple models suggest that the spatial pattern of non-marital childbearing can be attributed to social influence and historical trauma rather than to opportunity cost. However, the conclusions are tentative. The subject needs further studies