Giving prognosis for the chosen features of the operation and maintenance system based on model investigations

The paper deals with the chosen issues related to modelling, giving prognosis and controlling maintenance process of a certain class of the technical objects being realized in a complex maintenance system. Supporting a decision maker in the decision making process related to the analysed maintenance system is to forecast behaviour of the maintenance system and evaluate influence of the chosen decision making variants on the maintenance process course. The object of the investigation, being the basis to illustrate the considerations presented herein, is an urban bus maintenance system in a selected urban agglomeration. The purpose of the paper is to present a possibility to use the Markov 's model of the technical object maintenance process to preliminarily forecast the maintenance system state after changing the model input parameter values. The change of the model input parameter values may simulate influence of the internal and external factors on the system behaviour. The presented method to model and forecast a maintenance system due to the assumed generalization degree of the description and the system approach to the problem may be used to forecast and analyse a maintenance process being carried out in other maintenance systems than the one in an urban bus transport system