Simulation-Based Risk Analysis of Maritime Transit Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul

In this manuscript, development and preliminary results of a simulation based risk modeling study for the Strait of Istanbul is presented. The goal of this research is to analyze the risks involved in the transit vessel traffic in the Strait of Istanbul. In the first step of the study, the transit vessel traffic system in the Strait of Istanbul has been investigated and a simulation model has been developed. The model gives due consideration to current traffic rules and regulations, transit vessel profiles and schedules, pilotage and tugboat services, local traffic, meteorological and geographical conditions. Regarding risk assessment, two sets of factors are used to evaluate the risk of accident in the Strait: the proba-bility of an accident and its potential consequences, as estimated and evaluated at various points along the Strait. Experience has shown that maritime accident occurrences can be very dissimilar from one another and therefore, probabilistic analysis of accidents should not be done independent of the factors affecting them. Thus, in this study, we have focused on the conditional probability of an accident, under a given setting of various accident causing factors. Unfortunately, historical accident data is by far insufficient for a proper sta-tistical consideration of all possible settings of these factors. Therefore, subject-expert opinion is relied upon in estimating these conditional accident probabilities. Assessment of the consequences of a given accident (in terms of its effects on human life, traffic efficiency, property and environment) was also accomplished using a similar approach. Finally, by integrating these assessments into the developed simulation model, the risks observed by each vessel at each risk slice are calculated in regard to the natural and man-made conditions surrounding. A sce-nario analysis is performed to evaluate the characteristics of the accident risk as the vessel moves along the Strait. This analysis allows us to investigate how various factors impact risk. These factors include vessel ar-rival rates, scheduling policies, pilotage service, overtaking and pursuit rules, and local traffic density. Policy indications are made based on the results of these scenarios