A multi-isotope and modelling approach for constraining hydro-connectivity in the East African Rift System, southern Ethiopia

During the last African Humid Period (AHP; 15–5 ka), many lakes in the East African Rift System (EARS) experienced pronounced lake-level variations that dramatically transformed the hydrological landscape. Currently dry, saline or marshy-wetland terminal lakes became vast waterbodies, interconnected via overflow sills resulting in the formation of a several thousand-kilometre-long chain of lakes in the EARS. A quantitative, process-based understanding of these hydrological systems can advance our interpretation of past hydroclimate variability from proxy records. Here, we provide a critical modern hydrological dataset for the data-sparse Lake Chew Bahir basin in southern Ethiopia. Driven by modern data, an isotope-enabled hydro-balance model was developed to assess how increases in rainfall modulate δ18O and 87Sr/86Sr variability. Considering a terminal Lake Chew Bahir scenario, humid conditions resulted in higher lake δ18O (∼+14‰) due to increased evaporation and longer water residence times. At the same time 87Sr/86Sr decreased from 0.7064 to 0.7061 due to an increased riverine Sr flux characterised by lower, unradiogenic 87Sr/86Sr ratios. In a modelling scenario where Lake Chew Bahir became a flow-through system with interconnectivity between lakes Abaya, Chamo, Chew Bahir and Turkana, higher lake δ18O (∼+12‰) relative to present was found, but δ18O was lower than in the terminal lake scenario. The lake water 87Sr/86Sr ratios (