Solar flare and CME predictions using numerical MHD simulations

According to observational and theoretical data the solar flare radiation and coronal mass ejection(CME) are manifestations of the same explosive process, which takes place high in the solar corona. In some solar flares one of these manifestations can be weak and can not be observed, in other flares both of these manifestations are present. CMEs are the most important cause of substorm appearances in the magnetosphere. For solar flare and CME predictions, it is need to have information about main processes of these explosive phenomena and to estimate the possibility of their occurrences. The energy for solar flare can be accumulated in a current sheet. For MHD simulation of this process the program PERESVET is developed that uses observed distributions of magnetic field on the photosphere as the boundary conditions. The MHD simulation showed, that the current sheet can be vertical, horizontal, or inclined to some angles to the photosphere depending on the magnetic field distribution on the photosphere and its evolution. The vertical current sheet can produce the CME, because the magnetic tension force accelerates plasma from the Sun. The CME prognosis is based on information about the position of current sheet in the solar corona