Monitoring the Youth Guarantee policy 2014

This report focuses on the effectiveness of fees-free places and secondary-tertiary programmes in keeping young people in education, assisting them to attain NCEA Level 2 or equivalent and promoting higher level study in tertiary education. It also includes information on employment and other destinations. It covers the period from 2010, when fees-free places were first set up, to 2014. The Youth Guarantee policy provides opportunities for young people to achieve education success, and progress into further education, training and employment. It supports schools, tertiary education organisations and employers to work together in new ways. There is a range of initiatives within the Youth Guarantee policy, including fees-free places at tertiary providers and secondary-tertiary programmes. The latter allow young people to remain enrolled at school, while participating in various forms of education delivered by tertiary education organisations. Since 2013, the Youth Guarantee initiatives have included Vocational Pathways as a framework to clarify the options for young people and identify the skills and knowledge valued by employers. The purpose of monitoring and evaluating the Youth Guarantee policy is to understand the extent to which the desired outcomes of the policy are being met. Summary of findings Fees-free programmes had a higher proportion of participants with lower NCEA Level 1 performance and/or had been disengaged at school than secondary-tertiary programmes. This reflects the different target groups of the two programmes. Māori appear to be over-represented in both programmes compared with students with similar school performance, as do students from low decile schools and/or high deprivation neighbourhoods. Fees-free places and secondary-tertiary programmes were effective in retaining young people in education in the year they started the programme. However, the programmes had no effect on retention after that. The major effect of both programmes has been on increased attainment of NCEA Level 2 or equivalent. Young people on these programmes were more likely to attain this than young people with similar characteristics in other educational settings. Neither programme has had a sustained effect, so far, on increasing the proportion of young people who progress to further study at Level 4 and above. There is no evidence that they have provided a more effective pathway to further education and training than other educational choices for a similar group of young people. There is evidence that both programmes have provided more effective pathways to employment, particularly to full employment. This effect was stronger for secondary-tertiary programmes, which also led to higher earnings. Both programmes have been effective in engaging young people who would otherwise have been NEET. However, this effect appeared to disappear within one or two years following the programmes in the case of fees-free places, but appeared to be more sustained in the case of secondary-tertiary programmes. There is no evidence that fees-free places have had any immediate effect on reducing the receipt of welfare benefits. However, secondary-tertiary programmes did seem to have some effect