Against complacency: risks and opportunities for the Australia-US alliance

Introduction Ask any American foreign policy official to list the strongest US alliances, and the one with Australia will be without hesitation at or near the very top. That’s for good reason: Washington is newly focused on Australia’s neighbourhood, with an explicit “rebalance” of US foreign policy to Asia. It seeks like-minded partners to maintain a balance of power and bolster existing rules across the Indo-Pacific region. And it benefits from longstanding allies who combine the will and capacity to join American military efforts and deter threats from emerging. In all of this, Australia is almost singularly attractive. Today, Canberra is boosting the country’s military strength and regional activism, on top of a century of work alongside the United States in diverse corners of the globe. It is tightening its web of security ties, including with American allies and partners, and seeks to enhance the already-close defence and intelligence links with the United States. And it shares both US concerns about the long-term evolution of the Indo- Pacific region and a commitment to uphold the rulesbased order that has benefitted both countries. The result is that Australia may today figure more prominently in the thinking of American policymakers than at any time since the Second World War. The Australia-US alliance is deeper, closer and healthier than ever before, and it is newly relevant to the region in which both countries discern their most vital future interests. With Britain’s troubles in Europe, observers in both countries have begun to describe the alliance as the Anglosphere’s new “special relationship”. Such a convergence, however, should drive ambition rather than complacency. For all its successes, the alliance has not been tested — at least since the Vietnam War — in the region where it matters most. And it is Asia where tests of it are likeliest to arise, where there is the greatest divergence between Australia’s national security establishment and public opinion, and where the United States and Australia will face a series of difficult choices with implications for their bilateral ties. This paper explores some of those choices and identifies a series of mid- to long-term risks to the alliance. The aim in outlining such potential difficulties is to raise awareness among policymakers in Canberra and Washington who are rightly enthusiastic about recent accomplishments and new possibilities, but who often exhibit insufficient attention to the inevitable future dilemmas. Only by directing bilateral discussions at specific risks can the two countries take meaningful steps to mitigate them before they arise. The paper then explores several areas of possible cooperation between the United States and Australia. These areas — ranging from space and defence collaboration to strengthening ties with Indonesia and New Zealand to advances on trade — would further the economic and security interests of both countries and draw them still closer together. The paper then concludes with some principles that a new US administration and any new Australian government would do well to keep in mind. The spirit in which this paper is written, and which one hopes animates both governments, is one of confidence without complacency. Australia and the United States share democratic political values, key national interests and a conviction that the rulesbased international order is worth defending. Both countries possess the will and the capacity to act beyond their shores for the common good and a history of taking on challenges together. And yet to grow comfortable is to invite danger. By addressing risks before they mature and continually pursuing new opportunities, Washington and Canberra can strengthen and prolong their unique bond — one that has done so much for so many