Modern developments in the population composition of Central Lika according to age and economic sector of activity — application of spatial and demo-geographic analysis

Glavni je cilj rada utvrđivanje suvremenih promjena sastava stanovništva Srednje Like prema dobi i prema sektoru djelatnosti. U tu svrhu provedene su prostorna i demogeografska analiza korištenjem popisnih podataka za godine 1971. i 2011. na prostornoj razini jedinice lokalne samouprave (kao i njihovih sjedišta) te za Srednju Liku u cjelini, a opažanja na terenu pridonijela su razumijevanju utjecaja utvrđenih procesa na prostor, odnosno krajolik Srednje Like. Također, kako bi se dobio bolji uvid, provedena je analiza kretanja ukupnog broja stanovnika Srednje Like u razdoblju od druge polovine 20. stoljeća. Promatrajući dob stanovništva, rezultati istraživanja su pokazali kako je u promatranom razdoblju na svim promatranim razinama došlo do značajnog starenja stanovništva čime dobno-spolna piramida poprima oblik urne. Pri tome je za obje promatrane godine najveća ostarjelost stanovništva zabilježena u Općini Lovinac, a najmanja u Gradu Gospiću. Nadalje, u promatranom je razdoblju zbog starenja stanovništva na području Srednje Like opća stopa aktivnosti sve niža. Također, došlo je do prestrukturiranja stanovništva prema djelatnostima tercijarnog i kvartarnog sektora uz napuštanje tradicionalnih primarnih djelatnosti. S obzirom na trenutačne okolnosti, u narednim popisima stanovništva očekuje se na analiziranom području daljnji nastavak izrazito nepovoljnih demografskih i ekonomskih procesa.The main goal of this paper is to discuss the modern developments in the population composition of Central Lika according to the population’s age and economic sector of activity. For this purpose, a spatial and a demo- -geographic analysis were conducted by using census data from the years 1971 and 2011, both on the spatial level of local government units (and their seats), as well as Central Lika as a whole. Field observations helped understand the influence of established processes on the space, or rather the landscape of Central Lika. Additionally, in order to gain better insight, an analysis of the total population number trend for Central Lika was conducted, covering the time frame from the second half of the 20th century until now. By taking a closer look at the age of the population, the results of the research have shown that, in the covered time frame, a significant population ageing trend can be noted on all observed levels. This has led to the population pyramid taking the shape of an urn. For both studied years, the highest rate of population ageing has been noted in the Lovinac municipality, and the lowest in the Town of GospiÊ. Furthermore, in the observed time frame, the general rate of activity in the Central Lika area is lower due to the ageing of the population. Moreover, there has been an economic sector restructuring in the population, with a stark shift toward the tertiary and quaternary sector, and the population abandoning traditional activities of the primary sector. Considering the current circumstances, in the upcoming population census, a continuation of severely adverse demographic and economic processes is expected in the analysed area