Investigating long-term lifestyles changes in France: a statistical and modelling approach

International audienceAs lifestyles relate to our ways of "doing" , "having" , "using" and "displaying" , our behaviour and all of the related products, objects and infrastructures (Røpke, 2009), they are both a broad and complex object of thought and a key determinant of the sustainability of our societies. Conducted in a qualitative way, the analysis of future lifestyles offers great freedom to imagine dramatic changes of societies and to explore paradigm shifts. These changes could result from the widespread of various existing behaviours considered today as weak signals or from the emergence of social movements of great magnitude. Performing a quantitative analysis is less straightforward and could be conceptually questioned. Yet for the specific problem of sustainable lifestyles a quantitative approach can help ground the scenarios not only on technical solutions but also on elements of lifestyles change. What is missing is a quantitative method to define the possible long term impact of lifestyle change on mobility, housing and consumption patterns. In this paper we introduce a statistical model that we developed especially to address long-term lifestyles changes and their consequences on the consumption of goods and services and on the energy services demand in France. We make use of national mobility housing and consumption surveys to identify significant patterns. We propose a model of their diffusion in the long term according while also taking into account the demographic changes. Our contribution is organised as follows: we first describe the statistical model and the surveys; then an application to future societal trends is proposed in a prospective approach. A set of lifestyles anticipated for France in 2050 that explore various changes are considered. Finally we aim to discuss the contributions and limitations of the proposed quantitative model and how it can fit into futures thinking