Stalin and the Origins of Mistrust

We examine current differences in trust levels within the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) and trace their origins back to the system of forced labor during Stalin, which was marked by high incarceration rates and harsh punishments. We explore whether those exposed to knowledge about the repressions became less trusting and transferred this social norm to future generations and communities. We argue that political repressions were more salient and visible to local communities living near forced labor camps (gulags), which symbolized the harshness of Stalin's regime. Combining contemporary survey data with the geolocation of forced labor camps, we find that living near former gulags lowers present-day social trust and civic engagement. These effects are independent of living near places where Stalin's victims were arrested. Moreover, they are above and beyond any experiences with war or civil conflict that the extant literature documents, indicating that the gulag system's repressiveness is a crucial trigger of the mistrust culture within the FSU countries today. As such, we furnish novel evidence on how past political repression matters for current socioeconomic outcomes. © 2022 The Author(s).All three coauthors have contributed equally. This paper initially appeared as GLO Discussion Paper 344 and IZA Discussion Paper 12326 and should be replaced by the current version, which is substantively new. The authors thank Michaela Bia, Katrin Boeckh, Shuai Chen, Natalia Danzer, Filipe dos Reis, Paul Elhorst, Richard Frensch, Ira Gang, Kseniia Gatskova, Scott Gehlbach, Guido Hausmann, Herman Hoen, Stepan Jurajda, Morgan Kelly, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Mariko Klasing, Katerina Kralova, Lukas Linsi, Anthony Lepinteur, Anastasiya Lisina, Saliha Metinsoy, Petros Milionis, Javier Olivera, Elizaveta Pronkina, Martin Fernandez Sanchez, Thomas Siedler, Gerhard Toews, Felipe Valencia, Pierre-Louis Vezina, Hans-Joachim Voth, and participants in the 2021 Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) paper session ‘‘The Long Shadow of Communism,” the 2021 European Society for Population Economics (ESPE) conference, 2021 Armenian Economic Association (ArmEA) conference, 2021 European Public Choice Society (EPCS) conference, 2021 WEast Berlin Conference, as well as participants at research seminars at LISER, UWE Bristol, the Free University Berlin, University of Groningen, IOS Regensburg, and Corvinus University for useful comments and suggestions. We are grateful to Martien Scheepens and the Geodienst at the University of Groningen (and especially to Hannah ter Steege and Wouter Wijbrands) for help with mapping. Furthermore, we thank Alonso Gonzales for digitizing historical railroads maps, and Erkinai Derkenbaeva for excellent research assistance with collecting data on altitudes and the location of current prisons. We are thankful to John S. Huffstot for copy-editing and proofreading. All errors are our own. Vladimir Otrachshenko acknowledges the funding by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) from funds of Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation (BMZ), SDGnexus Network (Grant No. 57526248), program ‘‘exceed – Hochschulexzellenz in der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit.