Changes of the Position of China's Service Industry in the Global Value China and Driving Factors

陈贵富，厦门大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，经济学博士；吴腊梅，厦门大学经济学院博士研究生。【中文摘要】明确中国服务业嵌入全球价值链位置及其变动的驱动因素对于我国更好地实现价值链攀升具有重要意义。从产出供应链和投入需求链测算中国服务业嵌入全球价值链位置的演变特征来看，中国服务业存在产出上游度上升而投入下游度下降的变化趋势且不同类别服务业存在较大差异。对服务业嵌入价值链位置变动的结构分解表明：产出上游度变动主要源于行业内效应,投入下游度变动由行业间效应和行业内效应共同主导；中间品供给网络效应是促进中国服务业产出上游度提升的主要驱动力，而增加值规模效应和跨国中间品需求网络效应是导致中国服务业投入下游度下降的要因素。 【Abstract】Clarifying the position of China's service industry in the global value chain ( GVC) and the driving factors of its changes are of great significance to China's GVC upgrading. This paper studies the changes of the participation of China's service industry in the global output supply chain and the global input demand chain；it finds that the GVC position of China's service industry shows a decentralized evolution trend of rising output upstreamness and falling input downstreamness，and the GVC position of different types of service industries also indicate different features. The structural decomposition analysis of the changes of the GVC position of China's service industry shows that，the changes in the output upstreamness of China's service industry are mainly due to the “intra-industry effect”，while the change of input downstreamness is jointly dominated by “inter-industry effect”and “intra-industry effect”. For the output upstreamness of China's service industry，the intermediate supply network effect is the main driving force that promotes the rise of the GVC position.For the input downstreamness of China's service industry，the value-added size effect and inter-country intermediate demand network effect are the main factors leading to the decline of the input downstreamness of China's service industry.教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“供给侧结构改革的理论基础与政策思路研究”(16JZD016);教育部重点研究基地重大项目“中国季度宏观经济模型（CQMM)的再拓展”（17JJD790014)；国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国不同要素分配关系与分配正义理念创新研究”(17ZDA114