Estimating the carbon emissions caused by electric vehicle use in Turkey using marginal emission factors

Electric vehicles (EVs) produce zero carbon emissions during their use. However, generation of the electricity to charge EVs does cause emissions. In this study, we calculate the carbon emissions caused by the introduction of 10,000 hypothetical EVs in Turkey. To this end, we first develop a simulation model that characterizes the hourly power demand of EVs based on distributions of EV model characteristics, trip times and lengths as well as charging decisions of EV users. We then characterize the supply side by determining the marginal power plants and estimating the Marginal Emission Factor (MEF) for the Turkish power system. We use real hourly generation data of the country by different fuel types, under four different seasons and three time-of-day periods, for years 2014 and 2019. We find the MEFs for Turkey in 2019 to range between 100-332 kgCO2/MWh, which are much lower than the MEFs reported for other countries. Finally, we bring the supply and demand studies together to calculate the carbon emissions of the hypothetical EV fleet. We observe the EVs fleet to cause between one fifth and one third of the emissions of a similar internal combustion engine car fleet