What is the predictive value of OroGrams to estimate survival rates of HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma?

Design Retrospective cohort study.Cohort selection OroGrams is a nomogram designed to better predict survival patterns in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) by incorporation of both HPV-DNA and p16 status. The aim of this study was to evaluate the external validity of OroGrams in a Scottish population. The study population was noted to have a higher smoking status than the four European cohorts among which Orograms was originally developed and established.Data analysis Retrospective analysis was undertaken of health records and death certificates of patients with OPSCC in Glasgow, Scotland between 2012 and 2017. Required baseline characteristics were compared to the original study cohorts to assess comparability. OroGrams was implemented to produce Kaplan Meier curves for overall and progression-free survival at one, three and five years. Brier scores were produced to compare these to the actual observed outcomes.Results Compared to the UK study group, significantly more of the Scottish cohort presented at a later stage (p