Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation options of rain-fed agriculture in Africa with integrated modelling framework

Rain-fed agriculture areas in Africa are experiencing heavy pressure from climatic changes and food insecurity risk. This paper aims to provide an integrated modeling framework to identify food-insecurity hotspots in African agricultural systems and potential effective adaptation strategies at a local scale. We use the integrated modeling framework to drive rain-fed maize simulation models with baseline and generated climatic data. Maize yields simulated with the current and doubling CO2concentration are then compared to analyze the effect of CO2fertilization. Incorporating two local adaptive strategies into crop modeling provided some insights on preferred types of adaptation in different areas. The results showed that rain-fed maize production is highly vulnerable to simulated global warming. Such impacts differed with different weather conditions. Climate change has greater impacts on the relatively arid area. The results of the effectiveness of adaptive strategies imply that adaptive strategies need to be tailored to the local and community level to buffer the yield reduction impacts of climate change effectively