A Study on the Forecasting of Manpower Demands by Industry and Manpower Requirements by Academic Background

기술의 빠른 발전과 경제개방의 확대는 노동의 수요측면에서 필요로 하는 기술(기능)이나 숙련이 바뀌는 등으로 여러 가지 변화를 수반한다. 이에 따라 산업수요의 변동을 감한하여 직업별 고용구조의 변화를 전망하고, 이에 적합한 인력의 양성과 공급의 흐름을 탐색하는 인력수급전망이 갖는 의미가 크다. 본 연구는 한국고용정보원과 공동으로 총량 인력수급에 대한 전망을 살펴보았다. 이를 바탕으로 학교 졸업자를 중심으로 하는 신규인력에 대한 수요와 공급을 분석하였다. 특히 전문대학 이상의 전공별로 산업수요에 부응하는 정도를 보여주는 전공별 수급차를 도출하였다. 본 연구에서 결과가 학생들의 진로선택을 돕고 정부의 인력수급 관련 정책수립이나 대학의 자율적인 정원조정 등에 널리 활용되기를 기대한다. ○ 주요내용 - 총량 인력공급전망 - 총량 인력수요전망 - 신규인력 수급전망 - 신규인력 수급차 - 인력수급전망의 정책 시사점1. Introduction The main focus of economic activities has gone from being physical resources such as equipment and raw materials to human resources that possess the necessary technologies and knowledge. Core human resources which boast creative ideas and highly-advanced technological competencies have become an essential factor in securing competitiveness at the enterprise and even national levels. In addition, the securing of basic labor and human resources that boast basic operating skills has become a very important elements in maintaining economic development and in the carrying out of regular economic activities. The variable known as salary has traditionally been the main factor at play in terms of ensuring the flexible resolution of the gap between the supply and demand for manpower in individual industrial fields in Korea. However, the recent decrease in the flexibility of the labor market occasioned by the salary variable has resulted in increased difficulties maintaining a balance between the demand and supply for manpower. In this regard the importance of providing job seekers with exact information about general job tasks, or of detailed job descriptions at the individual enterprise level, has increased. To this end, the need to introduce an incentive system through which the required manpower could be educated has increased. In addition, as the forecasting of manpower requirements represents the basic materials with which manpower policies are established, and can serve as a roadmap in establishing the direction for manpower-related policies, studies on the forecasting of manpower requirements can be regarded as representing a very important element when it comes to the government’s establishment of policies. Given this reality, this study set out to forecast total manpower requirements in a highly reliable and useful fashion. In order to bridge the gap between the supply and demand for manpower, the results of the forecast conducted herein, which reflect industrial demand, were used to estimate manpower demand by academic background and major, and manpower supply by academic major. 2. Forecasting of Total Manpower Requirements The forecasting of manpower requirements begins with an analysis of the structural changes in the economically active population. To this end, as it has an important impact on the working age population and the main areas of production activity, and thus greatly influences the economy, population structure by age and region represents a very important factor. Therefore, in order to forecast manpower supply, the working age population was estimated based on population projections by age and region prepared by the Korea National Statistical Office. The population unable to engage in economic activities was naturally omitted from this calculation. The economic activity participation rate was estimated based on projections of the working age population. In this regard, while the economic activity participation rate of men exhibited a gradual decrease during the period 1991-2006, the economic activity participation rate of women increased over the same period. The number of economically active people can be calculated by multiplying the economic activity participation rate by the working age population. The number of economically active people will continuously increase to reach 26, 822,000 people in 2016. This increase in the economically active population can, in addition to the high academic qualifications of those participating in economic activities, be regarded as the driving force behind Korean economy growth. The overall industrial manpower demands during the period 2006-2016 are forecasted to increase by an annual average of 1.1%p, as part of which the number of new jobs will increase by an annual average of 278,000 over the next 10 years. More to the point, while manpower demands in the agricultural, forestry, and fishery industry as well as mining industry are forecasted to experience a general decrease, manpower demands in the services industry will increase. Taking a look at the increase in manpower demand during the 2006-2016 from a vocational standpoint, we find that the number of professionals, individuals engaged in the services industry, and technicians and paraprofessionals is expected to increase. Meanwhile, sales workers and skilled laborers engaged in the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors will in all likelihood decrease. 3. Forecasting of New Manpower Requirements The new manpower supply included in the analysis of new manpower requirements refers to the human resources amongst the potential new manpower who participate in the labor market by searching for jobs or who are already employed. Therefore, any individual who belongs to the new manpower group that does not participate in economic activities is not included in the calculation of the supply of new manpower. New manpower can thus be regarded as those individuals who naturally begin to participate in economic activities because they have reached the age to do so, or who begin to participate in economic activities after graduation. The new manpower demand refers to the sum of the growth in demand, which is calculated based on the number of new jobs created by reasons such as economic growth, and alternative demands in the form of demands for employment occasioned by the retirement or death of existing manpower. The most important element in terms of the demand for new manpower is the flow of manpower graduating from schools, which brings about changes in economic activities as they either enter higher education after graduation, secure employment, or look for jobs. Therefore, the analysis of the demand for new manpower conducted in this study focuses on those who have recently graduated from school. While the new manpower supply was forecast for the period spanning from 2007 to 2016, the actual forecasting process consisted of three steps: Forecasting of graduates by major → forecasting of the supply of new manpower by major → estimation of the supply of new manpower by vocation. Due to the rapidly emerging phenomenon of high academic qualifications, a gradual increase in the number of individuals with high academic qualifications in Korean society occurred before 2006. However, the fact that the total number of students graduating from college or higher in 2016 is expected to remain at the current levels would seem t indicate that this phenomenon is expected to lose steam in the future. The overall number of new manpower supplied is expected to decrease somewhat in 2011, at least when compared with 2006, before increasing again in 2016. Viewed from the standpoint of academic background, the number of new manpower graduating from colleges is expected to exhibit a big decrease as the number of students enrolled in such schools also decreases. On the contrary, the number of new manpower graduating from universities and graduate schools is anticipated to increase continuously. In terms of the forecasting of the supply of new manpower by vocation, the supply of manpower trained in the general affairs management and general office administration sectors preferred by students with high academic qualifications such as a university or graduate school degree will increase as the size of this group expands. The process of forecasting the demand for new manpower was carried out in three steps: forecasting of total new manpower demand by vocation forecasting of new manpower demand by vocation estimation of new manpower demand by major. The scale of overall demand for new manpower is expected to decrease somewhat in 2011, when compared with 2006, before increasing once again in 2016. Viewed from the standpoint of academic background, the scale of the demand for new manpower who graduated from colleges will exhibit a stark decreasemeanwhile, the scale of the demand for new manpower graduating from universities and graduate schools will continuously increase. Looking at the forecasted results for new manpower demand by vocation, we find that the demand for new manpower will continuously increase in the future in the management field. As the number of jobs created in the social sector increases, the demand for the social service jobs closely related to the social sector will also gradually increase. The analysis and projections of the gap between the supply and demand for manpower by academic degree and vocation, as well as by academic degree and major, were conducted based on the forecasted results of the demand for new manpower demand. Here, the gap between manpower supply and demand was calculated by subtracting the forecasted new manpower supply from the new manpower demand (once the latter had been ascertained): Gap between the new manpower supply and demand = new manpower supply-new manpower demand. While an excess supply was recorded in cases where the forecasted results exhibit a plus (+), an excess demand was uncovered in cases where the results exhibit a minus (-). The Korean market for new manpower is projected to continue to exhibit an excess supply in 2016. However, the scope of this excess supply will begin to decrease from 2011onwards. Viewed from the standpoint of academic background, while new manpower graduating from college or higher will exhibit a decrease from 2011 onwards, the ratio of this excess supply emanating from colleges and graduate schools will increasemeanwhile, the ratio of excess supply made up by universities will decrease. In the case of the new manpower from colleges, it is forecasted that the excess supply of new manpower will be evident in all vocational fields. Looking at the supply of new manpower by period,we find that while the scale of the excess supply of new manpower will increase during the period 2006-2011, this will begin to decrease after 2011. In the case of the new manpower from universities, although an excess supply is expected in the majority of fields, an excess demand is anticipated in the medical and pharmaceutical fields. Much as is the case with manpower from colleges and universities, an excess supply is expected in the majority of fields where the new manpower from graduate schools is concerned. However, while an excess supply will be exhibited in the medical and pharmaceutical fields, an excess demand is forecast in the engineering field. A look at the forecasted results of the gap in new manpower requirements by vocational classification for all academic backgrounds reveals that an excess supply can be expected to prevail in terms of the overall vocational classifications. In the case of college manpower, it is expected that an excess supply will emerge in all vocational classificationswith the largest excess supply being recorded in the social service job sector, followed by financial management, sales and personal service jobs. The smallest excess supply will be recorded in the general affairs management sector, as well as in agricultural, forestry, and fishery jobs. At the university level, while an excess supply is anticipated for all vocational classifications, much like at the college level, the largest excess supply is expected to be recorded in the social service sector. This will be followed by the financial management, sales, personal service, and construction and production sectors. Much as is the case at the college and university levels, an excess supply is expected in all vocational classifications at the graduate school level. The excess supply in the social service sector is in particular anticipated to account for the majority of the overall excess supply. We can see that the size of the excess supply in this particular sector has gradually increased over time. The scope of the excess supply in the general affairs management, financial management, social service, sales, and personal service sectors, as well as in the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors, are all expected to expand, with the notable exception to this trend being the construction and production sectors. 4. Conclusion The results of the manpower requirements forecasts conducted herein show that the supply of labor has, in keeping with the acceleration ofthe low-birth rate, decreased. To this end, it is expected that a manpower shortage will emerge over the period of the next 10 years covered in this study. According to these total manpower requirement forecasts, the unemployment rate, which refers to the gap between the economically active population and the employed population, is expected to remain at 3.5% from 2015 onwards. Of course, as the excess demand for labor is a factor that causes a spike in wages and an excess supply of labor one that ushers in a drop in wages, the labor market will in the long term move towards achieving a balance. Therefore, the phenomenon of excess demand for manpower will gradually be scaled back as we move toward a restoration of the balance between the supply and demand for labor brought about by an increase in wages. Nevertheless, as conflicting factors within the labor market have caused the flexible adjustment function to be improperly carried out in terms of the supply and demand for manpower, the need arises to respond to the manpower shortage by implementing a long-term manpower requirement policy. To supplement the current shortcomings in the labor force, it is necessary to establish a policy that would govern education and the use of high-quality manpower. To this end, the government has recently implemented the so-called ‘2+5 policy (getting a job two years earlier and working for five years more)’. It is also forecasted that the current trend towards the aging of the population engaged in economic activities will continue. While the number of those currently in their 30s-40s, which can be regarded as the core manpower engaged in economic activities, is expected to increase somewhat, the segment of the economically active population made up by those younger than 29 is expected to decrease. This reflects the current reality characterized by a low-birth trend, tendency towards high academic qualifications, and the difficulties of the younger generation to move into the labor market. Therefore, to ease the decrease in young manpower and in core production manpower, a policy designed to make better use of the elderly and female workers, and which also takes into consideration the systematic use of foreign labor, must be drawn up. In addition, the government should implement a strategy of investing in human resources so as to develop vocational competencies through such means as the establishment of a lifelong learning system for those currently working. Because it uses results derived from overall manpower requirements, the study of new manpower can be regarded as a part of the research conducted on total manpower requirements. However, the fact that the study of new manpower is based more on assumptions than is the case with total manpower requirements means that one is to some extent hard-pressed to display things as they actually are in the case of the studies of new manpower. In order to conduct a study of new manpower that is based on statistics obtained from the actual labor market rather than assumptions, systematic materials must be secured. In addition, it is also necessary to continue efforts to improve the precision of forecasts through such means as comparisons of forecasted and actual results. Studies on new manpower that are based on quantitative concepts that make use of equations to forecast manpower requirements have proven to be especially useful in the case of Korea. To this end, there is a need to continue to conduct research on new manpower from both a theoretical standpoint and from the standpoint of manpower requirements.요 약 제1장 서 론 제1절 필요성과 목적 1 제2절 연구 내용과 기대효과 4 1. 총량 인력공급전망 4 2. 총량 인력수요전망 6 3. 신규인력 수급전망 6 4. 신규인력 전공별 수급차 전망 7 5. 기대효과 8 제3절 인력수급 전망 방법 9 1. 연구 방법 9 2. 인력수급전망 방법론 10 제2장 총량 공급전망 제1절 인구추계 23 1. 총인구와 가구 추이 23 2. 연령별 인구구조 26 3. 지역별 인구구조 30 4. 각국의 인구변화 전망과 시사점 34 제2절 생산가능인구 전망 41 1. 생산가능인구 총량 전망 42 2. 학력수준별 생산가능인구 전망 45 3. 연령별 생산가능인구 전망 51 제3절 경제활동참가율 53 1. 경제활동참가율 전망 방법 53 2. 학력수준별 경제활동참가율 전망 56 3. 연령별 경제활동참가율 전망 57 제4절 경제활동인구 60 1. 경제활동인구 총량 전망 60 2. 학력수준별 경제활동인구 전망 62 3. 연령별 경제활동인구 전망 65 제3장 총량 수요전망 제1절 인력수요전망의 개요 73 1. 인력수요전망 목적 73 2. 기존 연구검토 74 제2절 인력수요전망의 기본 개요와 방법 75 1. 인력수급전망의 기본단계와 절차 75 2. 정량적ㆍ정성적 인력수요전망의 결합 81 제3절 중장기 산업별 성장과 취업계수 전망 82 1. 산업별 부가가치 전망 82 2. 산업별 취업계수 전망 95 제4절 중장기 노동수요 전망 101 1. 산업별 노동수요 전망 101 2. 고용직업분류(KECO) 기준 직업별 수요 113 3. 표준직업분류(KSCO) 기준 직업별 노동 124 4. 학력별 노동수요 전망 131 제5절 정책 함의와 시사점 135 1. 정책 함의와 활용 방안 135 2. 국제비교와 시사점 139 제4장 신규인력 수급 전망 제1절 총량전망과 신규인력 147 1. 신규인력의 개념과 분석대상 148 2. 신규인력의 중요성 149 3. 총량 생산가능인구와 학력별 변동 151 제2절 신규인력 공급 전망 154 1. 전공별 졸업생 전망 155 2. 전공별 신규인력 공급 규모 전망 168 3. 직업별 신규인력 공급 규모 전망 177 제3절 신규인력 수요 전망 184 1. 신규인력 수요 전망 절차 및 방법 184 2. 전공별 신규인력 수요 전망 결과 185 3. 직업별 신규인력 수요 전망 결과 193 제5장 신규인력의 수급차 전망 제1절 신규인력 수급차 개념 202 1. 신규인력 전공별 수급차 202 2. 학력수준별 수급차와 총량 수치와의 관계 204 제2절 신규인력 수급차 전망 206 1. 전공별 신규인력 수급차 전망 206 2. 직업별 신규인력 수급차 전망 215 제3절 설문조사 분석 224 1. 전망에 대한 설문조사 결과 224 2. 향후전망 227 3. 산업수요의 부합정도 231 제6장 결론 제1절 인력수급 전망개요 237 제2절 총량인력수급 전망 시사점 239 제3절 신규인력 연구의 시사점 245 제4절 수급전망의 개선방향 247 SUMMARY 249 <부록 1> 설문지 257 <부록 2> 조사 설문지 259 참고문헌 30