Linkage between Education and Labor Market and the Outcome(Ⅰ)

본 연구는「교육과 노동시장 연계와 성과」를 제목으로 한 3개년 시지즈의 첫 해 연구로서, 교육과 노동시장의 효율적인 연계 방안을 찾고 그 연계가 노동시장에 어떠한 성과를 나타내고 있는지를 분석하여, 이를 근거로 교육정책과 노동정책에 대한 함의를 모색하기 위한 목적 하에 수행되었다. 본 연구를 위해 1982-1992-2002년의 4년제 대학교 졸업자 3개 계층의 8,091명을 대상으로「교육-노동시장 생애경로조사」를 실시하여 개인 단위의 생애 시계열 데이터를 구축하였다. 본 조사는 현 시점 기준으로 졸업 후 경과한 과거에 대한 회고조사(recall survey)이다. 연구 결과, 각기 다른 대학 특성과 전공 특성 그리고 각 대학입시제도 하에서 교육 투자수익률은 각기 다르게 나타났다. 특히 장기적 ？노동시장 성과로서 이공계열 전공자가 인문사회계열 전공자보다 생애 임금수준에서도 낮지 않았다는 점과 전공-직업 일치 분야로 진출할수록 임금수준으로 측정한 노동시장 성과가 높았다는 점을 알 수 있었다. ○ 주요내용 - 고등교육 수요와 대학정책의 변화 - 대입정책의 변화와 대학의 학생선발 - 교육 투자수익률 분석 - 대학의 질적 교육 투자수익률 - 전공계열별 교육투자의 장기적 노동시장 성과 - 전공-직업 일치의 장기적 노동시장 성과This study is conducted to seek the implication of linkage on education and labor policies by researching the effective linkage between education and the labor market and analyzing the performance of the linkage in the labor market. In order to carry out this research, we analyzed i) what were the admission criteria of the universities to admit students under the constantly changing education policies and principles, ii) the actual achievement after attaining the university education by evaluating the quality and quantity aspects of the university education, and iii) the achievement of the educational investment, the university education, by analyzing the long-term lifespan of the worker, not the short-term outcome of entering into labor market after graduation. The summary of each chapter is as follows. In Chapter 2, we analyzed the changes in demand for higher education as well as the changes in university policies. For the last couple of decades, the higher education has expanded visibly in quality. Up to 1992, the demand on higher education constantly increasedhowever, the supply started to exceed the demand from 1993. While the quantity of the higher education receivers increased up to the point of saturation, there were significant changes in quality of these higher education receivers as well. First, we divided the university graduates into three cohorts by their graduation year, to years of 1982, 1992 and 2002, and looked into the characteristics in the quality of each cohort. There were more students with less academic achievements in high schools in the latter cohorts, and there were more students who continued their study in graduate schools in the former cohort with higher academic achievements. Second, the experience of receiving private tutoring was affected by the government's policy of the time. The cohort of graduation year of 1992, the ratio of receiving private tutoring is only 10%, which was affected by the private tutoring banning policy of the time. However, the graduates for the class of 2002, the ratio of receiving private tutoring is increased to 50%, indicating that the private tutoring policy was eased when they were in high school. Third, we looked into the occupational classification of the students' fathers when they were in high school. It shows that the ratio of fathers with occupation in lower class whose children went to university has increased in the latter cohorts. On the other hand, the ratio of the destitute parents sending their children to university decreased in the latter cohorts. In Chapter 3, we analyzed the changes of university admission system and the admission criteria. The university admission system of Korea has changed 13 times since the liberation. It could be divided to four periods as followsi) individual entrance exam period (1945~1968), ii) preliminary exam period (1969~1981), iii) achievement test period (1982~1993), iv) national academic aptitude test (1994~present). These changes are directly affected by the social demand for the university education and the political and social environments around it. These changes were all short-term revisions made to solve the hot issues in education and social areas of the time. In Chapter 4, we analyzed the earning rate of educational investment. For this, we tried to compare individuals by using individual panel data, KLIPS, in order to control the efficiency of the individual capacity. In other words, with the respondents who have experienced the changes in education investment level, we analyzed the difference in salary before and after the educational investment. By doing so, we could avoid the efficiency in difference of capacity that takes place when comparing individuals and provide robust presumption on the earning rate of investment. In addition, the measurement errors inherent in the education variable could be reduced by using the panel information on educational changes of an individual. The analysis shows that the earing rate of investment assumed by the transverse section information is overestimating the actual earning rate. This is contrary to the traditional notion that the education has the 'income equalizing function'. The fact that limited earning rate increased gradually is a warning that the middle and upper-class families are investing more to the education of their children and it will end up worsening the income inequality of the society. Further, we migrated the existing hypothesis that the earning rate of educational investment is irrelevant to the investment level and compared the nonlinearity of the earning rate of investment. Unlike the traditional belief, the limited earning rate was gradually increasing and this increasing was concentrated on the phase of upgrading one's education level to the university. In Chapter 5, we assumed the effect of the educational investment on the earning rate regarding the quality of university education. We demonstrated how much the educational investment on university education in terms of quality impacts on the earning rate of an individual, considering the changes of educational system and problems of schools. The variables of educational investment in quality were internal factors such as double majors and the academic achievements of students. It was shown that he earning rate of educational investment increased, as the level of educational investment gets higher. The effect of GPA on the earning rate of the investment, it did not have that much for the 1982 cohort and 1992 cohort. However, it has a positive effect insignificantly for 2002 cohort. It was shown that the earning rate of investment for an individual using variables such as the ratio of a professor to students was higher as the educational investment in quality was higher. In Chapter 6, we analyzed the long-term achievement of educational investment in labor market. The result was that regarding the graduate year of cohort, choosing scientific and engineering majors are economically beneficial in short-term compare to the ones who chose humanities and social science majors. However, as the work experience increase, the benefit disappears and the disappearing point was the 18th year (1982 cohort)~21st year (1992 cohort) for all the respondents. The workers would be in their late 40's. Second, when comparing the 1982 cohort to 1992 cohort, the economic benefits of choosing science and engineering majors increased considering all the factors. Third, in order to see whether outstanding students actually avoid choosing science and engineering majors, not the average level of students, we analyzed the top 25% of the high-paying salary respondents. In terms of quality, it was similar to the all three cohorts, but there was a small difference in terms of quantity. The economic incentive of choosing science and engineering majors was bigger for 1992 cohort than 1982 cohort, same as the all cohorts. For 1982 cohort, the humanities and social science majors start surpass the science and engineering majors after 16 years. However, the economic incentive of science and engineering majors was bigger up to the retirement for 1992 cohort. In Chapter 7, we analyzed the long-term labor market focusing on major-occupation consistency. Especially we considered the accumulated major-occupation consistency and analyzed the graduation year and the difference in majors. The results shows that first, when people worked for job that was consistent with their major, the salary was high. As the major-occupation consistency gets higher, the salary premium increased gradually. Second, when the level of accumulated major-occupation consistency was used as explaining variable, instead of major-occupation consistency at current job, an entrance salary incentive existed. Third, regardless of the graduation year, an entrance major-occupation consistency effect existed. As the level of accumulated skill was higher, the salary got higher, showing the accumulated major-occupation consistency works for all cohorts. Fourth, the salary premium according to the major-occupation consistency was confirmed in every field except for humanities majors. Replacing it with the level of accumulated skills, people who work for jobs related to their majors got paid higher salary. We would like make proposals based on the above research is as follows. First, from the point in 1993 when the excessive demand on higher education has disappeared, the overall academic level of university students got decreased and the excessive demand was spreaded because of it. Since then, the private tutoring was done to enter a good university from just entering one. Thus, the expenditure on private tutoring had to be expanded significantly due to the fact that the high school education was open for the majority of the public. As pointed out, the private tutoring is still continuing this day and the polarization of private tutoring between social classes is believed to be contributing to the fixation of the social classes. Thus, it is essential that a countermeasure for this problem is provided.목 차 [요 약] 제1장 서론 (전재식ㆍ변종석) 제1절 연구의 필요성 및 목적 1 1. 연구의 필요성 1 2. 연구 목적 4 제2절 연구 질문 및 내용 7 1. 연구 질문 7 2. 연구 내용 8 제3절 데이터 구성과 실태조사 개요 10 1. 데이터의 구성 10 2. 실태조사 개요 12 제4절 연구의 범위 및 보고서의 구성 17 - 제1부 교육정책 변화와 대학의 학생선발 제2장 고등교육 수요와 대학정책의 변화 (김안국) 제1절 서론 23 제2절 고등교육 이수의 양적 변화 27 제3절 고등교육 이수자의 특성 변화 35 제4절 고등교육 수요의 거시적 결정요인 47 제5절 소결 53 제3장 대학입학전형정책의 변화와 대학의 학생선발 (백성준) 제1절 서론 59 제2절 대입전형제도의 변화 62 1. 대학별 단독 시험기(1945～1968년) 63 2. 대학입학 예비고사기(1969～1981년) 65 3. 대학입학 학력고사기(1982～1993년) 67 4. 대학수학능력시험기(1994년～현재) 68 제3절 대입전형제도와 학생선발 분석 71 1. 정책 환경 변인과 대학입학전형제도 71 2. 미래 인재 양성과 대학입학전형제도 72 3. 대학입학전형제도와 각 개인의 노동시장 생산성 73 제4절 소결 75 - 제2부 대학의 교육투자와 효과 제4장 교육 투자수익률 분석 (신동균) 제1절 도입 79 제2절 기존 문헌 연구 84 1. 능력에 의한 추정치의 편의 문제 85 2. 교육 변수의 측정오차 문제 87 3. 국내 실증분석 연구결과 요약 88 제3절 자료 및 추정 모형 91 제4절 실증분석 결과 95 제5절 소결 106 제5장 대학의 질적 교육투자 수익률 (전재식 민주홍) 제1절 문제의 제기 111 제2절 정부의 교육정책과 대학 교육투자의 질적 변화 114 제3절 질적 교육투자가 수익률에 미친 효과 118 1. 추정 모형 설정 118 2. 변수 설명 124 3. 실증분석 결과 126 제4절 소결 136 - 제3부 교육투자의 장기적 노동시장 성과 제6장 전공계열별 교육투자의 장기적 노동시장 성과 (김미란 신동균) 제1절 연구의 필요성 143 제2절 자료 및 분석 방법 146 제3절 실증분석 결과 150 제4절 모의실험 163 제5절 소결 175 제7장 전공-직업 일치의 장기적 노동시장 성과 (박재민) 제1절 문제의 제기 179 제2절 선행연구 181 제3절 전공직종일치와 이직횟수에 따른 소득수준 186 제4절 전공일치에 따른 노동시장 성과 및 경력과정 189 1. 누적적 전공일치 194 2. 누적적 전공일치와 임금 200 3. 누적적 전공직종일치와 임금효과 204 제5절 소결 222 제8장 요약 및 정책 제언 (전재식) 제1절 연구 요약 225 제2절 정책 제언 229 SUMMARY 237 <부록 1>「교육-노동시장 생애경로로사」설문지 247 참고문헌 26