A Study on Manpower Supply and Demand Prospect System for Establishment of Higher Education HR Policy(II)

○ 본 연구는 2011~2013년 기간의 3개년 시리즈 연구로서 고등학교 인재정책 방안을 수립하기 위해 중장기 인력수급 전망체제를 구축하고, 이를 토대로 저출산·고령화 사회에 대비하여 국민경제 잠재성장력 극대화를 통해 지속적인 성장을 견인해 나갈 수 있는 방안을 모색하고자 한다. ○ 1차년도에 이어서 2차년도 연구에서는 인력수급 전망 관련 통계의 인프라 구축 현황을 분석하여 미비한 통계자료의 보완을 위한 신규 통계 구축을 제안하는 한편, 전공별 인력수급 전망을 실시하였다.1. Outline of the Study A. Necessity and Purpose for Collaborative Study Importance of workforce development is ever increasing in our society, marked as knowledge-based and low fertility &amprapidly aging society. To establish an effective workforce development system, workforce need and supply should be projected based on the assessment of the current workforce. Despite their limitations, nationwide aggregate projections are regarded reliable through continuous improvements by researchers. Yet, they seem to fall far short of providing the needed insights into the reliable policies for higher education workforce, ranging from basic statistical infrastructure to projection model development. Therefore, an effective projection system is in need for making efficient and coherent higher education workforce policies aimed at sustainable growth. A multi-year, collaborative study is required to achieve the goals of this study: developing a mid and long term projection system for higher education workforce policies, securing its coherence and reliability and enhancing its availabilitybuilding up a statistical infrastructure to enhance the reliability of projection resultsand providing workforce projections by major. This 3-year long study (2011-2013) aims to contribute to maximizing the potential of national economy and leading its sustainable growth by providing a mid and long term workforce projection system, which is essential to establishing efficient and effective higher education workforce policies. B. Purpose and Results of the 2nd-Year Study Investigated in the second year study were the current state of workforce-related statistical infrastructures and ways to develop a novel statistical infrastructure for greater availability. Higher education workforce by major was projected by utilization of the workforce projection model developed based on the established statistical infrastructure in the 1st year-study. This study presents higher education workforce projection by major at the sub-major group level, providing a baseline information for developing higher education workforce policies. To this end, the current statistical infrastructures for workforce projection were assessed, a new complemented statistical system was devised, and workforce projections by major were made. To be more specific, the workforce supply projection was drawn from the assessment of Higher Education Statistical DB and Employment Statistical DB published by Korean Educational Development Institute, while the workforce demand by major was projected from the outcomes of surveys done to enterprises in formulating a novel statistical infrastructure. The outcomes of the 2nd year-study, assessment of the current statistical infrastructures and workforce projection by major, will serve as the basic statistical infrastructure for aggregate projection of higher education workforce and collaborative interdisciplinary studies in the 3rd year-study. 2. Current Status of Statistical Infrastructures for Workforce Projections Regarding statistical infrastructures for workforce projections, standardized classifications, complementing of basic statistical infrastructure, specification and coherence of investigation scope, assessment at the unit group level, accuracy and consistency of classification were addressed (Park et al., 2006Park et al., 2007Lee et al., 2008Lee et al., 2008). Qualitative and quantitative improvement and enhanced availability can be achieved through close collaboration between organizations dealing with employment statistics. Accuracy of workforce projections can be increased by carrying out surveys addressing specific demands. 3. Current State of Higher Education Workforce Supply by Major Trends for number of graduates, employment rate, occupational &ampindustrial employment were assessed from Higher Education Statistical DB and Employment Statistical DB published by Korean Educational Development Institute. The assessment results is as follows. First, the number of college and university graduates is in decrease. The ever-increasing college and university enrollment rate turned downward in the year 2008 and is projected to ever-decline considering the projected drop in high school graduates from 2016. Second, low fertility rate is expected to end in a dramatic fall in college and university graduates in the coming 15-20 years. Third, unlike college and university graduates, graduate school graduates are forecast to gain greater employment opportunities, mainly due to &ampquotrush to higher education.” The ratio of graduate school graduates can be predicted to keep increasing, given the Korean''''s high level of education expectancy. 4. Higher Education Workforce Projection by Major A. Projected number of higher education graduates by major The projection of higher education graduates in the period of 2011-2021 showed an average decline rate of 0.3%. In the former par of the period, the number of graduates is projected to slightly grow owing to &ampRush to Higher Education,&ampwhile in the latter part of the period, the number will fall because of the low fertility rate. The projection of graduates of different education levels were made by major at the major group level. Junior college is projected to have lower graduates at all major groups except for medicine until 2021. Given the projected increase in the number of graduates of 4-year medical colleges, &amprush to higher education&ampwill end in the greater medical workforce from higher level of college. College and university is expected to witness continuous growth in the number of graduates from colleges of social studies, medicine and arts &ampphysical education. College of medicine, in particular, is forecasted to increase at a relatively high average growth rate of 1.8%. In the mean time, the number of graduates from graduate schools is expected to have an average growth rate of 1.8% during the investigation period, with above 1% average growth rates for all major groups. College of medicine is followed by those of art &ampphysical education, social studies, and liberal arts in the projected average growth rate of graduates. B. Workforce Supply Projection by Major Statistical surveys on employment of higher education graduates showed that 476.1 thousands were newly employed in 2006. The number of those newly employed slightly dropped to 475.6 thousands in 2011 but it is projected to climb up to 484.2 thousands in 2016, and go down to 470.8 thousands in 2021. The number of newly employed junior college graduates was 190.4 thousands in 2006, and 160.7 thousands in 2011. The number is estimated to decrease to 147.0 and 133.6 thousands respectively in 2016 and 2021. By major, junior colleges of engineering and liberal arts are projected to provide less new workforce while those of social studies and medicine, greater new workforce. During the period, increased numbers of college and university graduates in colleges of social studies, education, medicine and art &ampphysical education are expected to be newly employed, while decreased numbers from colleges of natural science and engineering. All major groups of graduate schools are projected to have an increased number of newly employed graduates. The ratio of graduates from college of social studies in the total new employment is forecast to increase from 21.1% to 25.2%, while that of those from college of engineering, to droop from 19.3% to 15.8%. 5. Current Status and Projection for Higher Education Workforce Demand by Major As few statistical data on higher education workforce demand by major are available, new surveys are needed to provide specific workforce demand data. In this study, majors of employees from a total of about 2,500 operations selected by industry were investigated. This pilot survey, designed to determine the relation between education level and industrial employment structure, has limitations to provide specific understanding but needs to be done for future, national level of studies and projections on workforce demand. Projection on workforce demand by education level in the period of 2011-2021 showed the number of total employees is projected to reach 12,799 in 2021, with an average annual growth of 2.71% from 9,794 in 2011. Employment of junior college graduates is forecast to increase by average annual growth of 2.7%, while that of college and university graduates, 2.4% and that of graduate school graduates, a whopping 5.8%. The projected workforce demand by major showed an average annual growth of 5.1% in medicine, 2.7% each in engineering and arts &ampphysical education, 2.5% each in liberal arts and education, and the lowest growth in natural sciences. 6. Conclusion This study was designed to provide a new insight for workforce management, by addressing various factors affecting workforce demand and supply. Labor demand by educational level and major is among them and less studied. The aggregate workforce projection in the 3rd year-study is based on the study results. From the 2nd year-study the following implications were drawn: A. Efforts for Improved Statistical Infrastructure Researchers have long emphasized importance and limitations of statistical infrastructures, standardized classification system, continuous complement of basic statistical infrastructure, more detailed classification and unification of investigation scope, unit group-level study, accuracy and consistency of classifications. They aren''''t easy for nation-wide statistical data and infrastructure. An alternative can be collaborative studies between organizations dealing with employment statistical data. Also where nation-wide statistical data cannot be utilized as a key statistics, studies well-devised for reflecting education and labor markets can be a good solution to lack of data. However, strenuous efforts should be made to improve statistical infrastructure for effective workforce projections. B. Workforce Development Policies Preparing for Demographic Changes Workforce projections clearly show that workforce development policies are needed to address the dramatic demographical changes. Low fertility rates result in a sharp fall in the school-aged population. The rapid depopulation is expected to generate serious social problems which have to be addressed, posing a huge challenge of enhancing the quality of both labor force and education. C. National Strategies for Employment-friendly Growth National strategies for job-friendly growth have to be in place. Job creation has been the highest priority challenge to social polarization and welfare matters. For sustainable growth, awareness of job-friendly growth policies must be increased. Collaborative and coordinated efforts should be made to catch up with the employment rate of advanced OECD countries. Government-led efforts need to back up job creation efforts by service industries. To this end, policies to expand knowlege service workforce supply. D. Workforce Development Meeting Industrial Demands Workforce development meeting industrial demands need to be more strengthened. Although various efforts including customized workforce development &ampindustry-academia collaboration, are being made, higher education in Korea is said to fall short of industrial demands, resulting in mismatches between employer needs and worker skills. On-site oriented initial training programs including industry-academia curriculum development, personnel / human resources exchanges, and internship programs need to be promoted and facilitated. E. Facilitated University Restructuring The necessity of university restructuring has been raised upon the continuous under-enrollment due to depopulation of school age children. Colleges and universities are to be forced to be more specialty-oriented and specialized. To alleviate employment mismatches, university and colleges need to be more focused as with research/education/practice-oriented ones, departments should be reshuffled to present higher employment competitiveness, and well-coordinated school-to-work transition programs need to be facilitated.요약 제1장 서 론_1 제1절 협동연구의 필요성과 목적3 제2절 2차년도 연구의 목적7 제2장 인력수급전망을 위한 통계 인프라 현황_11 제1절 수요전망과 통계인프라15 제2절 공급전망과 통계인프라28 제3절 소결35 제3장 고등교육 전공분야별 인력공급 현황분석_45 제1절 전문대학 48 제2절 4년제 대학53 제3절 대학원(석·박사) 64 제4절 소결73 제4장 고등교육 전공분야별 인력공급 전망_81 제1절 신규인력의 개념과 분석모형83 제2절 전공분야별 인력공급 전망90 제3절 소결118 제5장 고등교육 전공분야별 인력수요 현황 및 전망_123 제1절 전공분야별 인력수요 실태조사 125 제2절 전공분야별 인력수요 전망145 제3절 소결155 제6장 정책적 시사점_159 제1절 요약 및 결론161 제2절 정책적 시사점165 SUMMARY_171 참고문헌_181 부 록_185 1. 기업체 전공별 인력 분포 조사표187 2. 고등교육기관 전공별 취업현황19