Conflict Resolution for Moldova and Transdniestria through Federalisation? CEPS Policy Brief No. 25, August 2002

The present note is a response to the invitation from Moldova to comment on the new draft agreement proposed by Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE to resolve the decade-old stand-off between Moldova and Transdniestria, following the conflict over the latter’s attempted secession in 1992. It is a contribution to an open international debate over the search for a viable solution. Summary At a meeting in Kiev on 1-3 July 2002, the mediators for the Moldovan- Transdniestria conflict proposed, at the initiative of the OSCE, a draft agreement on the constitutional system that would regulate the distribution of competencies between Chisinau and Tiraspol. This draft agreement defines the Republic of Moldova as a “federal state”. The implementation of the agreement would be monitored and ultimately guaranteed by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the OSCE.1 It is to be greatly welcomed that the interested parties have reached the stage of negotiation over a full text to finally resolve a conflict in a constitutionally ordered way. It is also notable, and highly positive, that this process is now being made open and transparent. This improves the chances that the outcome will be viewed as democratically legitimate by the population, which is an important condition for its long-term viability. Under the present circumstances, the choice of a federal solution should also be welcomed as the best option for a multi-national state such as Moldova. Furthermore, the federalisation of Moldova could lead to a positive spillover effect in the frozen conflicts of the southern Caucasus