The EU's Limited Response to Belarus' Pseudo 'New Foreign Policy'. CEPS Policy Brief No. 151, 8 February 2008

[From the Introduction]. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to analyse whether the dynamics of EU-Belarus relations have changed at all one year after the oil and gas crisis, and if so, whether the EU has succeeded in increasing its leverage over the country. A first section briefly reviews the EU’s policy towards Belarus since the coming to power of Lukashenko. Next, the paper looks into the oil and gas crisis and examines if Russia has radically changed its policy towards Belarus, by effectively ending the subsidies. Thirdly, we analyse Lukashenko’s efforts to offset the effects of the oil and gas crisis and the seriousness of his pro-European rhetoric. The fourth part attempts to verify whether there are any fundamental changes in the dynamics of EU-Belarus relations following the oil and gas crisis and speculates on how the EU can engage with the people of Belarus more effectively. Finally, the paper puts forward a series of short-term and longerterm measures that the EU might consider, on the condition that Belarus commits to addressing the most basic requirements in the field of human rights and democratisation