Long term simulations of potential oil spills around Cuba

Simulations over eight years of continuous surface oil spills around Cuba are carried out to identify the most likely stranding (beaching) locations. The open source Lagrangian oil drift model OpenOil is applied with high resolution hydrodynamic forcing. The actual fraction of the released oil mass reaching different regions is calculated, revealing small differences between a light and a heavy crude oil type. Similar stranding rates for the two oil types are found. Another important conclusion is that, due to the high temporal variability in stranding rates, short term simulations of a few weeks are not suitable to assess environmental risk. The highest stranding rates are simulated in winter in Northern Cuba. It is also found that oil could reach Northern Cuba, Yucatan or Florida in about 3–5 days after a spill