Assessing Local Power Generation Potentials of Photovoltaics, Engine Cogeneration, and Heat Pumps: The Case of a Major Swiss City

In this paper, we investigate the potentials of distributed generation (DG) in a medium-sized Swiss city. We show the role of private households in the sustainable energy transition process induced by Swiss energy policy. For the analysis, we define six scenarios that enable us to study the potentials and impacts of different combinations of DG technologies in terms of costs, CO2 emissions, and amounts and shares of DG provided by non-industrial end-users (essentially private households and the services sector). Three variants are investigated, one with real electricity costs and CO2 emissions, one with increased electricity costs (e.g., construction of new power plants), and one with increased CO2 emissions (e.g., due to the planned nuclear phase-out in Switzerland). We find that non-industrial entities can play an important role as prosumers. They mitigate the need for centralized generation. Within a scenario where the non-industrial energy end-users install water-water heat pumps and photovoltaics, a total reduction of the gas procurement from the grid is possible whereas the electricity demand from the grid increases by 24%. This scenario reveals higher DG electricity costs in comparison to conventional electricity supply, but the total costs of energy supply decrease due to the elimination of gas supply, and the CO2 emissions can be reduced by 68%