Simulated forecasting of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) relative population density for Indiana waters of Lake Michigan : responses to varying harvest and alewife density

The yellow perch, (Perca flavescens), is an important commercial and sport fish in Indiana waters of Lake Michigan. The population is currently managed by temporary restrictions of commercial harvest. A computer simulation model was developed to examine the effects of various constant harvest quotas and alewife densities on yellow perch relative numbers.Model design is based on the SLAM II simulation language incorporating a FORTRAN biological subroutine. The age-structured population model includes measured or predicted biological characteristics of the dynamic pool model. Recruitment is based on a preestablished three-dimensional Ricker stock-recruitment function including alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) species interaction as a constant or stochastic factor. Sex-specific natural mortality rates were established through life history parameter analysis and the von Bertalanffy growth factors. Density-dependent growth is incorporated into each year of a model run and fluctuates with the simultaneous density of fish. Constant levels of commercial harvest ranging from 0 to 700,000 kg were used in 20-year forecasts. Initial conditions for model runs were 1984 and 1994 trawl CPUE levels when yellow perch were at high and low levels, respectively according to standardized sampling. Response variables were examined as mean catches over each forecast length and included: age 2 fish, spawning stock (z 190 mm), and total catch > age 1.Alewife densities had a tremendous impact on mean catches of the response variables. Highest catches under any forecast period occurred when alewife was considered absent from the system. Catches declined as alewife density was increased as a 20-year constant under each harvest regimen.Catches of spawning size fish were maintained at highest levels for all forecast periods when harvest was set to zero. Catches of young fish were moderate with this harvest regimen if initial catch conditions were high such as in 1984. Catches of young fish were always higher in the absence of a commercial fishery if initial catch conditions were low such as in 1994. Low to moderate harvest quotas could maintain moderate levels of young fish for the forecast length if initial model conditions were high. However, these quota levels for the 1984-2004 forecast length resulted in lower mean catches of spawning size fish as compared to the no commercial fishery regimen. The best case scenario for all response variables when initial catch conditions were low was under a no commercial harvest regimen.Department of BiologyThesis (M.S.