Policy portfolio analysis for energy systems based on a multiparadigm modeling framework

As the world progresses, energy issues are increasingly becoming some of the top priorities that are driving global policies. Issues such as energy security, sufficiency and pollution heavily influence decisions made by policy makers. Energy has become so pervasive in our daily routine that without it, modern life as we know it would become impossible. Fossil fuels are projected to be depleted sometime in the next hundred years, and it is imperative that we start deciding on where the next sources of energy would come from. As governments and corporations attempt to mould the transition into the next generation of fuels, it is important for these entities to do so with an adequate analysis of potential primary and secondary effects of policies that are to be implemented. Sometimes, certain policies may work well with others while others may counter act any potential benefits of a certain decision. All these must be taken account for an efficient transition. In order for decision makers to do so, certain tools must be made available for them to make informed decisions. An energy systems model based on a multi-paradigm framework has been developed and refined to allow for these different policies to be analyzed. The basis for this model starts from an adaptable residential demand model that is easily capable of incorporating various new technologies into the system. The model was initially developed as a tool to determine micro level impacts of PHEVs on residential households. System level effects were then examined through the integration of a supply side model. Sophisticated transportation modeling was also incorporated to determine more credible usage profiles for these vehicles. The model was then expanded to integrate other technologies such as distributed solar generation, distributed storage, large scale wind farms and large scale energy storage. The model is fully capable of analyzing different compositions of policy decisions. A study of Indianapolis examined the effects of EVs in the city, analyzing policies such as public charging locations, electricity tariffs and charging profiles. Another study explored the synergistic potentials of distributed solar generation and distributed storage. A method of quantifying these potential savings was introduced. This could potentially serve as a reference point for incentives for distributed storage