Les risques environnementaux en 2020 : bilan et leçons d'une réflexion prospective à INRAE

Many territories face growing risks that are increasingly multiple and interconnected. This article first provides a mapping of the scientific and institutional contexts related to environmental risks and their management at the national (French) and international levels. A summary of the collective prospective analysis conducted by INRAE on this topic is then provided. The scope includes disaster risks, physical and chemical risks, and risks for ecosystems. The work includes a bibliometric summary of the production of INRAE related to environmental risks as well as devoted analyses related to methodological and thematic issues conducted with the formal risk framework defined by IPCC. This leads to the definition of four scientific priorities expressed in methodological and transverse ways: i) the risk concept as a research object within a nonstationary context, ii) from/danger to decision within a systemic framework, iii) emerging risks with high societal resonance, iv) multiple risks. A roadmap to overcome these challenges is proposed. These conclusions are then discussed with regards to the broader state of the art, highlighting their consistency with an overall convergence dynamics that accounts for environmental risks within an increasingly holistic perspective. This accounts for linkages and dependencies and defines the "one risk" concept that makes it possible to globally address the challenge of habitability within the whole Earth system. The research effort urgently required is to be carried out in an inter- and transdisciplinary perspective, within the framework of sustainability sciences.De nombreux territoires font face à des risques grandissants et de plus en plus multiples et interconnectés. Cet article propose tout d’abord une cartographie du contexte scientifique et institutionnel relatif aux risques environnementaux et à leur prise en charge au niveau national et international. Il offre ensuite une synthèse de l’Atelier de Réflexion Prospective (ARP) mené par INRAE sur cette thématique, notamment en termes de fronts de science et de feuille de route identifiés, puis met en perspective ses principales conclusions. Le périmètre de l’analyse inclut les risques de catastrophe, les risques physico-chimiques, et les risques pour les écosystèmes. Cette perspective hors silos que traduit le concept de « one risk » permet de traiter globalement la problématique de l’habitabilité du système Terre. L’effort de recherche requis est à mener de manière inter- et transdisciplinaire dans le cadre des sciences de la durabilité