Sino-ROK relations at 15 : an overview and assessment

For the past 15 years since their diplomatic normalization China and South Korea (ROK) have improved their bilateral ties to such an extent that each represents for the other one of the largest, if not the largest, trade and investment partners. China is also perceived as playing an essential role in the ongoing Six-Party Talks over North Korean nuclear issues and other likely major issues on the Korean peninsula. Yet, there also exists a growing yet littlediscussed list of potential problems and issues underlying their otherwise prosperous relationship. Prime examples include the North Korean “refugees” in China, the history of Koguryo, and the longerterm “rise of China”. After identifying principal trends and major developments in China’s post-Cold War relationships with South Korea in particular and with the two Koreas in general this paper examines actual and likely future differences between China and South Korea on a panoply of peninsular and regional issues, including the evolving US-South Korean alliance relationship. Overall, in short, the current state of the Sino-South Korean relationship can be likened to standing right in the eye of the typhoon without knowing where the shelter is