Scenario archetypes in urban transport planning: Insights from the implementation of LRT systems

This work has been supported by the State Research Agency of Spain, under a postdoctoral “Juan de la Cierva” training grant ( FJC2020-044618-I / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033 ), as a continuation of the research started under the Ph.D. Program on Civil Engineering of the University of Granada (Spain), for the Thesis dissertation of the corresponding author, entitled Evaluación de escenarios para la planificación del transporte y el desarrollo urbano: aplicación al metro ligero de Granada [Scenario assessment for transport planning and urban development: an application the light rail project of Granada].The adaptation of transport concepts to changing urban conditions has rendered continuous transformation in the contexts, rationalities and type of decisions involved in urban transport planning. Foresight approaches in future studies offer flexible tools to capture transformations at such different levels. In this work, we explore pathways for the integration of future-scenario methods in transport planning, using the implementation of the Light Rail Transit (LRT) system in Granada (Spain) as a case in point. We applied the concept of “scenario archetype” to review both process-oriented and product-oriented elements in existing planning documents, assisted by a survey to local planning actors about the future of Granada's LRT. As a result, we suggest two main scenario archetypes, robust and flexible, in describing potential relationships between public transport projects and planning processes. Those archetypes entail different planning and communication environments, and therefore, integration pathways for using scenarios in envisioning the future of urban transport.State Research Agency of Spain FJC2020-044618-I / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033Universidad de Granad