Low Emission Energy Scenarios for the European Union

Executive Summary Energy consumption is a major cause of carbon dioxide emission, and also largely determines the uncontrolled emissions of many other pollutants. In consequence, energy scenarios are key inputs to the projection of pollution emission, and the formulation of strategies to reduce pollution and achieve environmental objectives. Alternative energy strategies including behavioral change, demand management, energy efficiency, and low carbon fuels are explored in this report. In addition to abating greenhouse gas emissions, these strategies can facilitate cheaper and greater abatement of other atmospheric pollutants as compared to higher carbon scenarios. In general, achieving a given air pollution emission target costs less in a low carbon scenario than in a high carbon scenario. This work is aimed at producing policies that exploit the positive synergy between strategies to limit global warming, and strategies for reaching other environmental objectives such as reduced acidification and improved air quality. Low carbon energy scenarios can improve energy security by reducing the consumption if finite fuels and reducing import requirements. The given objective was to produce scenarios in which the total emission of carbon dioxide from the twenty-five countries of the European Union is reduced by at least 30% over the period 1990 to 2020. To this end scenarios have been produced for each of the twenty-five EU countries taking into account recent historical data and assumed economic and population growths taken from other studies, and selections of policies measures. The scenarios show that, as compared to 1990, CO2 reductions of more than 30% are feasible by 2020, and that larger reductions are possible, especially in the longer term as technologies with long lifetimes such as power stations, are replaced. Data from the energy scenarios were input to the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model of IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), and the reductions in air pollution and the costs of air pollution control were there calculated. Apart from emission control, the policy options lead to a reduction in the import of finite fossil and fissile fuels into the EU and so they enhance supply security in a world with increasing competition for these dwindling resources. The policies required to implement the technical changes to demand and energy systems assumed have not been explored here. Svensk sammanfattning Produktion och konsumtion av energi är viktiga källor till utsläpp av koldioxid och andra luftföroreningar. Därför är energiscenarier viktiga vid upprättandet av strategier för att minska luftföroreningars miljöpåverkan. I denna rapport behandlas alternativa energistrategier för EU 25 som inkluderar livsstilsförändringar, efterfrågestyrning, energieffektivisering och användandet av bränslen med låg kolhalt. Jämfört med att enbart titta på varje förorening eller växthusgas för sig kan samordnade strategier leda till större utsläppsminskningar till en lägre kostnad. Syftet med denna rapport är att visa på de positiva synergier som finns mellan begränsningar av växthuseffekten och strategier för att uppnå andra miljömål såsom minskad försurning och förbättrad luftkvalitet. Alternativa energiscenarier som ger minskningar av koldioxidutsläppen på mer än 30 % över EU fram till år 2020 jämfört med 1990, har tagits fram och effekterna på andra luftföroreningar och kostnader studerats med hjälp av den så kallade GAINS modellen.