Coupling Coordination Analysis and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risks and Ecosystem Services in the Min River Basin

Watershed landscape ecological security and ecosystem service functions are the material basis and environmental guarantee for promoting socioeconomic development. Analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of landscape ecological risks (LERs) and ecosystem services (ESs) and exploring the coupling coordination relationship between the two are of great significance for promoting the construction of ecological civilization and achieving sustainable development in the watershed. With the Min River Basin as the study area, the landscape ecological risk assessment, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), and Carnegie Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) models were used to evaluate the LERs and ESs based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to predict the land use distribution of the Min River Basin in 2030. On this basis, the coupling coordination degree model was used to explore the coupling coordination relationship between the LERs and ESs. The results show that, from 2000 to 2020, the LER of the Min River Basin gradually decreased, and the overall spatial distribution pattern was “high in the north and low in the south”. The ES of the Min River Basin initially decreased and then increased, showing a spatial distribution pattern of “low in the south and high in the north”. Among the SSPs in 2030, the LER is the largest under the SSP3 scenario and the smallest under the SSP4 scenario. The ES improvement is the most significant under the SSP1 scenario and the lowest under the SSP3 scenario. From 2000 to 2030, the coupling coordination degree of the Min River Basin first decreased and then increased, showing a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the south and low in the north”. Among the five SSPs, the coupling coordination degree was the highest under SSP1. The spatial distribution of urban area is the main driving factor affecting the coupling coordination relationship between the LER and ES, and the development of social and economy is the beginning of landscape pattern optimization