中国对拉美出口贸易格局的实证分析 = Empirical analysis of export trade patterns from China to Latin America = Análisis empírico de los patrones de comercio de exportación de China a América Latina

近年来，中拉关系不断腾飞，拉美正有望成为“一带一路”这一宏伟蓝图中的“ 最后一块拼图”，为中国和拉美经贸合作创造历史性的“新机遇”。在此背景下，有必要对 中国与拉美出口贸易的潜力开展深入研究。本文首先从历史的角度考察中拉贸易的发展与现 状，使用联合国数据库的数据分析中国出口拉美的商品结构及国别分布，随后利用公式计算 出中国与拉美主要国家的贸易竞争性与互补性。实证结果表明，20世纪以来中国与拉美的进 出口贸易均实现了快速的增长，但增速减缓甚至出现下降趋势；中国与拉美国家的贸易表现 出很强的互补性，但这种互补性也呈现出下降的趋势，其中，墨西哥是与中国竞争性最强、 贸易联系最为疏松的国家，而委内瑞拉、秘鲁、智利是与中国互补性最强、贸易联系最为紧 密的国家。本文最后提出了具有针对性的政策建议。 In recent years, the relations between China and Latin America have experienced a dramatic deepening. Latin America is expected to become the last part of the magnificent "The Belt and Road" development program, in order to achieve a new historic opportunity for commercial cooperation between China and Latin America. In this case, it is necessary to carry out a deeper analysis of the export potential between the two parties. First, from a historical perspective, this work analyses the development and current situation of trade between China and Latin America, the structure of commodities of export from China to Latin America and the distribution of the country through the UN statistical database. Then analyses the competitiveness and trade complementarity between China and the main Latin American countries using the formula. According to the results, since the 20th century the import and export trade between China and Latin America has grown vigorously, but the growth rate has slowed and has even declined in recent years. Between China and Latin American countries there is a strong degree of complementarity in trade, but this degree has shown a downward trend. Among Latin American countries, Mexico is the country that dominates the highest competitiveness and the least narrow trade link with China; While Venezuela, Peru and Chile are the countries that maintain the greatest complementarity and the strongest trade link with China. Finally, this work proposes welltargeted policy recommendations