Seeing the wood and the trees? Lessons from applying ecosystem services in forest planning

In the UK and globally, forestry is experiencing an upsurge in interest as forests are anticipated to play a major role in addressing the twin crises of biodiversity loss and climate change that our society currently face. In the UK, forest management has traditionally focused on timber production yet forests provide many more ecosystem services (ES), including climate mitigation, slope stabilisation, and numerous wider ecological and social benefits. Forestry requires long-term planning, and so understanding the impacts of forest management is a critical part of predicting the future supply of these benefits, that can then inform decision-making. This thesis has taken a transdisciplinary approach to operationalise evidence of management impacts on ES to support planning and management decision-making for a public forest case study in Scotland. The research questions address three key areas: the link between management and the supply of ES; demand for ES from the public as a key stakeholder of the public forest estate; and the use of quantified ES information for supporting forest planning. There is a growing body of published research on forest ES; this was reviewed to synthesise the evidence of impacts of management on supply, and the trade-offs and synergies resulting from different management approaches. The review showed that maintaining the supply of ES at the forest scale will require a range of management approaches that build resilience in forests in the face of socio-economic and climate change uncertainty. A collaborative, case study approach was identified at the outset as critical to meet the thesis aims. The project was co-developed with a Forest Planning Manager (FM), and the activities undertaken formed five phases: Phase 1. Problem scoping and definition, to identify knowledge gaps and research questions, and select the case study forest. The chosen forest in northwest Scotland is a predominantly spruce plantation that is important for timber production, recreation and habitat for a protected species. Phase 2. Data collection for baseline ES supply, and current and future ES demand: to address one of the main knowledge gaps identified during Phase 1. Forest users and local communities were surveyed and the results showed general support for environmental, health and wellbeing outcomes, while timber production, climate mitigation and economic growth have lower priority. Phase 3. Baseline ES mapping: to test the usefulness of these data for operational decision-making. ES supply hotspots of timber, carbon storage, recreation and biodiversity benefits were mapped, which highlighted areas where there may be conflicts in achieving multiple benefits. Hotspot mapping methods were compared with the FM, who found that individual ES maps were most informative for operational decision-making. Phase 4. Scenario development and modelling: to explore how ES supply may change in future in response to management, including the impact of climate change. Forest development was simulated for 150 years to understand future ES supply under business as usual management using a dynamically coupled modelling approach. These results were then compared with alternative management scenarios developed with the FM. Phase 5. Data visualisation, feedback and reflection: to provide the modelling results in an interactive form that can support the forest planning process, and reflect on the research process to learn lessons for the future. A data visualisation dashboard was developed that the FM found useful for exploring the results, although there were unresolved challenges related to interpretation, particularly benchmarking and scaling issues. Overall, the main findings of the thesis showed that forest structure is more important than species for ES supply in this type of forest. In addition, forest management intensity decisions have more impact than climate in this region on future ES supply. The study showed that there are more trade-offs among ES under higher intensity management, and more synergies under lower intensity management. The simulation showed that time lags must be anticipated and accepted for delivering a wider suite of ES than timber. The ES framework provides a suitable method for delivering evidence that demonstrates how management influences the supply of benefits beyond the wood it supplies that can inform forest planning. It showed that there are time lags in ES responses to management, and that the scale at which ES are reported can have important consequences for measuring change. This is a challenge for using ES in planning. Co-developing the approach ensured the results were salient, as they resulted in direct instrumental changes to the new forest management plan that are intended to deliver wider environmental and social benefits in the future. There were also wider benefits from this project, such as improved awareness of the link between management and ES supply that the FM can apply in future planning decision-making