COVID-19 Working Paper: U.S.-Mexico Agricultural Trade in 2020

Agricultural trade between the United States and Mexico underwent many changes in 2020 in the face of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Overall, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico declined in April 2020 and did not recover until November 2020. Meanwhile, U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico declined in April and May 2020 before resuming their long-term upward trend. Beef and veal, cotton, and pork were the U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico with the largest decreases in export value between calendar years 2019 and 2020. The agricultural imports from Mexico with the largest increases in import value were tequila, fresh tomatoes, and beer. The economic downturn and shift away from food expenditures at hotels, restaurants, and institutional establishments because of the pandemic explain some of these changes. However, a larger set of supply and demand determinants was at play, including conventional factors unrelated to the pandemic, such as the long-term expansion of Mexico’s horticultural export sector and year-to-year changes in crop production