Spatial determinants of land-use changes in an urban region (Attica, Greece) between 1987 and 2007

The present study investigates the relationship between the use of land and selected spatial determinants of change in a Mediterranean urban region (Attica, Greece). A multi-temporal analysis was developed to assess the influence of population density, sealing intensity, distances from roads and from the main urban centre, land protection regime, municipality surface area, elevation, climate aridity, soil characteristics and sensitivity of land to degradation on changes in the spatial distribution of nine land-use classes derived from LANDSAT imagery for 1987 and 2007. Artificial, bare and burnt land increased in the last 20 years with the consequent decline in land-use quality and landscape diversification. Rain-fed crop and sparsely vegetated areas experienced the highest probability to edification. Elevation, population density, the distance from the centre of Athens and from the main roads were the variables affecting the most rapid changes in the use of land. Multivariate analysis allows identifying the most relevant spatial determinants of land-use changes as a target for environmental policies against land consumption in expanding urban regions